Hard disk drive makers are in for a very very tough year.
According to Coughlin Associates, fourth quarter 2008 hard disk drive (HDD) shipments declined about 19% from the third quarter of 2008; an unprecedented Q3 to Q4 drop.
Total HDD shipments for 2008 were about 540 million units and could fall as low as 500 million units this year, on par with 2007 volume.
“There is more downside than upside ahead and as a consequence, HDD unit shipments in 2009 will experience their worst year over year decline ever. The total decline in HDD units in 2009 over 2008 will be between 5% and 9% with a decline of 7% being likely,“ writes Tom Coughlin, the principal analyst at Coughlin Associates.
However, the decline in HDD revenue could be much steeper, as HDD companies like Toshiba, Samsung, Seagate or Western Digital engage in an unprecedented price war for survival.
Looking ahead, Coughlin expects positive growth in 2010 and a full recovery by 2011, with annual unit growth in the 20% or higher range or higher, like in 2003.
[...] put this in comparison, ~540M hard drive were shipped in 2008 and with a ~7% decline in 2009 this should equate to around 502M drive shipments in 2009. But this [...]
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