In a research note to clients today, J.P. Morgan analyst Mark Moskowitz said it now expects worldwide shipments of PCs to drop 13.5 per cent in 2009, down from his previous forecast of a 3.7 per cent decline.
A much somber outlook than reported by IT market research firms Gartner or IDC earlier this year, but in-line with the latest catastrophic fourth quarter PC shipment numbers.
Moskowitz’s crystal ball probably saw something neither one caught. For 2009, IDC expects PC shipments to increase 3.8 per cent this year from about 300 million units in 2008.
The Wall Street firm also anticipates that the enterprise PC replacement cycle, which generally happens every 3 to 5 years, could be “meaningfully deferred” to 2010.
Leaving companies like Dell, Lenovo – which just reported a $100 million loss – and at a lesser extent H-P, exposed to a steep revenue drop as they heavily rely on selling PCs to enterprises.
The only saving grace for the PC industry is the mini notebook or netbook segment which sold about 10 million in 2008, and double that this year.
Most of the research firms have now predicted/forecasted that PC shipments will drop in 2009 and the estimates vary from 2% to 13.5%. JP morgan estimates are on the highest side so far. Intel and Microsoft the two main pillars of PC industry have refused to give any guidance, and that further resonates the feeling of a good fall. The only bright spot in otherwise declining forecasts is the NETBOOK which has grown well and accepted well by the customers – and likely to grow by another 200 % this year amounting to somewheere around 30 million range. or it could be more !! and may touch in excess of 40 Million. This would further put pressure on the PC companies as ASPs will decline. and more choice to customers in the sense – smartphone v/s netbook or both !! interesting times .