Germany Can Achieve An 80 Percent Reduction In CO2 Over 40 Years

August 18, 2009

The claim sounds astonishing. Reduce a nation’s CO2 emissions by 80 percent in next the forty years to combat global warming.

But this is exactly what German utility RWE AG says the fatherland is capable of using a combination of wind power, carbon-capture technology for coal and nuclear power.

Use of nuclear, coal capture and wind power is recommended

Use of nuclear, coal capture and wind power is recommended

According to the electric utility’s study, wind power both on and off shore holds the greatest potential among renewable energy sources in Germany. Wind power will become “economically efficient” in the near future while geo-thermal and solar energy will rely on large public subsidies for a long time to come, the study says.

Coal will remain a source of electricity generation for years to come. But plant efficiency should improve to 53 percent by 2030 from 38 percent today. That will cut CO2 production by 28 percent. The reduction could reach 90 percent with carbon capture and storage technology, but at a high cost.

Nuclear power present provides 27 percent of Germany’s power. The report suggests extending the life of plants scheduled to phase out and claims uranium supplies will last 200 years at today consumption rate.

Perhaps not surprisingly, RWE’s prediction relies a great deal on current infrastructure – nuclear and coal, in particular. In this sense, it is not very imaginative. And it dodges the possibilities of technical breakthroughs in hydrogen, solar and elsewhere.

But it is reassuring that even with a laissez faire approach to energy responsibility, global warming might be kept in check.


Americans Underestimate Cost Of Going Green

August 18, 2009

Just like everything else, people have lofty aspirations to use clean technology. But they vastly underestimate the cost.

Americans are willing to pay 15% more for green power but know it will cost 50% more to generate

Americans are willing to pay 15% more for green power but know it will cost 50% more to generate

In California, for instance, voters were quick to approve a plan last year to build a bullet train from San Francisco to LA. But nowhere did they authorize a tax increase to pay for it.

This principle extends to green power. Americans support government mandates that require utilities to use renewable and non-polluting energy sources. But they underestimate how much it will raise their bills.

According to a study sponsored by the PR firm Burson-Marsteller and conducted by Penn Schoen & Berland Associates, 70 percent of Americans support the energy investments in the federal stimulus bill. A majority, in fact, say more should have been allocated.

But on average Americans say they are willing to pay just 15 percent more, or $18 on an average $117 electric bill, for green power. This is despite their belief that the power will cost 50 percent more to generate.

I guess this leaves Burson-Marsteller in the unenviable position of having to address the public misperception. Doing so would obviously be an important public service. But don’t underestimate the challenge. It’s a little like convincing someone to pay more for a product made in the United States. They know it is good for the country, but in the short term it will cost them more. So, they don’t, and the same is likely to hold true for green power.

The survey was conducted in May.


Breakthrough With Hydrogen Power And An Undiscovered Molecule Too

August 17, 2009

Hydrogen has long been seen as the energy source of the future. Non-polluting, abundant, it could be the ideal fuel for cars, airplanes, even large power plants.

The one hurdle is that separating hydrogen from water requires more energy than the energy generated when hydrogen is consumed as a fuel.

BlackLight claims to generate more energy from hydrogen than it takes to cull the gas from water

BlackLight claims to generate more energy from hydrogen than it takes to cull the gas from water

This could be changing. According to BlackLight Power of Cranbury, N.J., scientists at Rowen University found a way to generate more energy than it takes to create hydrogen and produced a previously undiscovered hydrino in the process.

“The energy released forming a hydrino is over 200 times the energy required to extract hydrogen from water by electrolysis to produce the new hydrogen fuel consumed,” says a BlackLight release.  The company has developed a solid-chemical fuel as a catalyst for the reaction.

A hydrino is a low-energy form of hydrogen.

The results appear to be step toward large-scale commercialization of hydrogen fuel. A paper discussing the work is published in the Central European Journal of Physics.


More Evidence That A Lack Of Competition Is Slowing Broadband In The US

August 17, 2009

Hats off to the Obama Administration for recognizing the nation’s expanding broadband gap puts the country at a competitive disadvantage.

Obama has set aside billions to improve broadband and rules to govern the spending are set to be unveiled shortly. While the rules were initially conceived to shore up broadband in rural areas, they also may address the speed gap that has developed compared with other developed countries, such as Japan, Korea, the Netherlands and France.

That would be good news.

I don’t need to tell many of you that the United States slipped to 19th place in 2008 in terms of the speeds consumers get from their commercial providers. It was 13th in 2007. The average download speed in the U.S. is 9.6 mbps, or a tenth of what is offered in Japan.

Think of the applications you might be able to use if your broadband ran 10 times faster.

Almost a half of US consumers express interest in a cellular modem if the price is right

Almost a half of US consumers express interest in a cellular modem if the price is right

I came across another example Monday of how a lack of competition in the communications markets is hurting broadband consumers. A survey by ABI Research found that 47 percent of U.S. consumers have at least some interest in a cellular modem for their laptops.

Today, cellular modem service from a carrier such as Verizon comes with a $50 to $60 a month charge. The survey found that mass consumption would probably begin if the service cost about half the price.

“Respondents who don’t currently own cellular modems but are interested in them…place a significantly lower value – somewhere between less than $10 and $30/month – on that service,” according to an ABI Research report.

In the U.S., entrepreneurs usually line up to address business propositions when the target audiences reaches into the millions. And they work hard to lower prices when necessary. So where are they now?

The answer is on the sidelines with access to the national networks closed off. Is it time again for the country to rethink its network access policies?


E-Mail Marketing May Be Surviving The Global Downturn

August 14, 2009

The global recession is creating havoc in the Internet advertising market,

Spending fell in the second quarter by 5 percent, the second consecutive quarter of declines.

Growth has been better this year than last, says AWeber Communications

Growth has been better this year than last, says AWeber Communications

During the period, all major ad types saw decreases, says IDC. Display advertising tumbled a startling 12 percent and classified listing were down 17 percent.

One category of advertising that appears to have weathered the tumult more easily than others is e-mail marketing. According to AWeber Communications, a Pennsylvania company catering to small businesses, company growth this year has been better than last.

The 43-person firm added about 16,000 new customers so far in 2009, outpacing the 20,000 it brought on board during all of 2008.

Justin Premick, director of education marketing, says customer desire to save money makes e-mail marketing an attractive alternative to radio and television promotions.

Meanwhile, companies continue to discover the category for the first time in an increasingly wired world.

“I think there is growth across the (e-mail marketing) industry,” Premick told TechPulse 360. “Based on what I am seeing, I do expect (the market) to continue to increase.”

In fairness to agencies serving the market, not all e-mail marketing is spam. AWeber, for instance, only helps companies send promotional e-mail to people who sign up to receive it.

Premick says response rates in the industry have improved for the most sophisticated e-mailers who try to segment their audiences into groups with different interests.

Click-through rates can be an impressive 20 percent – and much lower, too, he says. “It’s all about being relevant.”

In these tough times, doing business is all about saving money.  In that sense, e-mail marketing might be a useful barometer of economic sentiment. Growth in the market may suggest a desire not to spend more on advertising elsewhere.


Finance A Company With A Credit Card And Survive Less Than Three Years

August 14, 2009

Start a company in a garage, finance it on a credit card and hit the big time with a breakthrough product.

Such is the myth of the Silicon Valley startup (perhaps Internet Valley or Green Valley these days).

But relying on a credit card is an expensive way to fund a company, and it reduces the chance a business will survive its first three years, according to a study from the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation.

The foundation tracked a generation of companies founded in 2004. More than half relied on debt financing, the majority turning to credit cards to fill gaps. The study found that every $1,000 of card debt increased the likelihood a firm would close by 2.2 percent.


Forward Insights Challenges IDC “Hockey-Stick” SSD Sales Forecast

August 13, 2009
IDC hockey-stick forecast will put Flash memory maker at a financial risk

If IDC's bearish forecast materialises, then more Flash memory makers will have to declare bankruptcy

For a change, research firms agreed to disagree in forecasting the emergence of the solid-state disk (SSD) drive market.

During a panel hosted today at the Flash Memory Summit conference in Santa Clara, Calif., small technical research firm Forward Insights blasted its larger competitors (including IDC and Gartner) for their hockey-stick-like projections of the SSD market.

But first, to set the stage, IDC research manager in hard-disk drive (HDD) components and solid-state disk (SSD) drives Jeff Janukowicz said he expects the SSD market to reach $3 billion in sales next year, compare to $733 million in 2008 and less than a billion dollar this year.

IDC’s forecast will lead Flash memory makers to bankruptcy

A bearish growth that for Janukowicz will be mostly driven by enterprises adopting SSDs to improve the performance and lower the consumption of their data centres and by early-adopters in the PC market like gamers in the desktop segment or executives’ laptops.

Here’s a video excerpt of Janukowicz remarks:

Great outlook, right?

Well, not really according to Forward Insights President Greg Wong who thinks that this kind of hyper growth can not be done in a profitable way.

“If you take a look at the industry right now, profitability is a big challenge for everybody. So where will they get the money to invest and expand at the big growth rate that you see here [pointing at competitors' forecasts]… wether its through technology migration, plus 3-bits per cell, plus 20% CAPEX. That’s what you need to achieve those rates that [competitors] are predicting for next year. If you believe that it’s feasible, then I guess you’ll have to use their projections… And even if demand is quite strong next year, where will they get the cash?,” explains Wong.

A more prudent sentiment that was echoed during the conference by Sandisk CEO Eli Harari and Samsung vice president of memory marketing Jim Elliot.

In this video excerpt Wong explains his opposing arguments to the explosive growth of the Flash memory market:


Objective Analysis Expects Flash Memory Shortage, Higher Prices And SSD Industry To Consolidate

August 13, 2009
Objective Analysis principal Jim Handy sees a viable flash memory business for the near term

Objective Analysis believe SSDs will never reach prices of HDDs

In his presentation at the Flash Memory Summit today, Objective Analysis principal Jim Handy was quite optimistic on the future of the NAND flash memory market; for the near term.

Flash memory market business to remain viable until 2011

Handy pointed to current product shortages and price stability that will probably last until 2010-2011 due to growing demand combined with production and capital investments cutbacks; which is music to the ears for the 5 Flash memory makers left (Hynix, Micron, Samsung, Sandisk, Toshiba) in the market which are still recovering from their deep losses in 2008.

Looking at SSDs, Handy believes this market is ripe for consolidation; which will go from the 171+ Flash-based drive makers of today to just a handful. “Remember that there were 282 companies that used to make disk drives before the market consolidates to about 5 today,” recalls DISK/TREND founder Jim Porter.

Handy also expects SSDs to stay weak in the PC market due to higher costs compare to hard-disk drives and the upcoming launch of Braidwood, the codename for Intel’s update of its Turbo Memory technology, a flash-based caching technology that should improve disk access performance which is scheduled to be featured on mainstream motherboards in 2010.

To add insult to injury, Handy doesn’t see a price crossover between SSDs and HDDs… actually this may never happen.

Here’s a video excerpt of Handy’s presentation:


In Defense Of The Banner Ad

August 13, 2009

Banner advertising has been in the doghouse recently.

Banners don’t work, are too expensive and soon will be outdated in the age of social media are some of the complaints.

Online banners can introduce a brand, says ClearSaleings Adam Goldberg.

Online banners can introduce a brand, says ClearSaleing's Adam Goldberg.

Not everyone is as demeaning of these long-standing stalwarts of online branding. “It’s been the reassessment of them that has been wrong,” says Adam Goldberg, chief innovation officer at ClearSaleing.

ClearSaleing helps advertisers manage their online campaigns, so it might be easy to dismiss Goldberg’s opinion as self-serving.

But he makes a point worth considering giving his work with so-called attribution management. Attribution management attempts to follow consumers on the Web and determine which of the ads they see plays the primary role influencing their purchase of a product or service.

Goldberg says banners often play key roles as “introducers” of brand names, encouraging people to later search for products made by that brand.

Less than a fraction of a percent of consumers typically click on a banner ad. But that low response is missing the point. Banners are big and flashy, and ad campaigns have prompted over half of consumers who later went on to search to seek information on a product, Goldberg said during an interview this week at the Search Engine Strategies conference.

That would suggest significant value. It also would suggest there is significant value in Goldberg’s attribution research. But in fairness this isn’t entirely clear.

Asked if he had complied numerical data illustrating the average effectiveness of banners as introducers, Goldberg said he had no numbers. He needs to come up with some and to let other experts review them.

It would do his argument defending banners a great deal of good at a time when the poor old banner is feeling left out in the cold.


Google Decides Not To Sell Ads On Wave

August 13, 2009

Google said it has no plans to sell advertising on Wave, its new online communications and collaboration tool.

“It’s not something I would rule out,” says Nicholas Fox, a product management director at the company. “But we’re not going to do that right now.”

Fox spoke this week at the Search Engine Strategies conference in San Jose.

Google unveiled Wave in May and expect it to be available later this year.


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