Hybrids will do well with consumers. But all-electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids will struggle unless the price of oil skyrockets.
Only 4% Of vehicles sold will be plug-in hybrids or all-electrics with oil at $200 a barrel, says Lux Research
That’s the judgment of Lux Research in a widely publicized study of the electric vehicle market over the next 10 years. The conclusion that demand for these cars and trucks will trickle instead of gush runs counter to some expectations of a sharp spike in consumer interest.
Obviously one market drawback is the distance electric vehicles can drive on a charged battery – from 50 miles or a couple hundred. This is a noted contrast to the several hundred an average internal combustion car can cover and the ease with which a driver can find a fresh tank of gas.
But more important is price, says Lux. “Even in the scenario with $200 (a barrel) oil in 2020, only about 4% of the vehicles sold worldwide will be (plug-in hybrids) or (all-electrics) due to the high costs of the battery technology for these vehicles,” the study projects.
If oil prices remain closer to $70 a barrel, only hybrids will do well. Sales should be about 3 million vehicles annually by 2020. Plug-ins hybrids will see similar sales levels only if oil rises to $200 a barrel, Lux finds. All-electrics will add up to one-tenth the total.
That said, light plug-in hybrids could be best sellers in the U.S. with oil at $200 and the lithium-ion battery a big winner. The market for lithium-ion batteries designed for electric vehicles could expand to $9 billion by 2020, even as the price of batteries fall from $720 a KWh today to as low as $405 a KWh.
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