More Americans Doubt Global Warming, Pew Study Finds

October 23, 2009

The polar icecaps are melting. Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is on a steep rise. But more Americans now doubt global warming, according to a Pew Research study.

Fifty-seven percent of Americans believe there is no conclusive evidence that temperatures on earth have been rising over the past few decades, according to the poll conducted in late September and early October.  That is down from 71 percent in April 2008.

Source: Pew Research

Source: Pew Research

What’s more, fewer Americans now believe human activity, including the burning of fossil fuels, plays a role in climate change. Only 36 percent say so, compared with 47 percent last year.

The increasing misperceptions are a worrisome trend as the United States tries to reach a consensus on measures to stem the accumulation of greenhouse gases and arrest a steady rise in global temperatures. While global warming is a complex topic, its causes are fairly well established and include the burning of fossil fuels, such as oil, in cars, power plants and homes.
According to the study, Republicans are mostly likely to disbelieve global warming. Only 35 percent see solid evidence of rising temperatures; 62 percent did in 2007. Support among independents also has fallen, to 53 percent from 79 percent last year.

Views among Democrats have been more stable. Three quarters believe in climate change today compared with 83 percent last year.

Yet, the study isn’t all bad news for planet earth. Half of Americans favor setting limits on carbon emissions and support requiring companies to pay for theirs, the concept behind the cap-and-trade legislation before Congress.

Similarly, 56 percent think the United States should join other countries in setting emission standards – the goal of the Copenhagen talks set to begin in December.


SunPower Says Credit Markets For Solar Improving

October 22, 2009

Banks and other financial institutions are warming up to residential, commercial and utility solar projects again.

That is according to solar panel maker SunPower, which released third quarter earnings Thursday afternoon.

SunPowers share price in recent months

SunPower's share price in recent months

“As you know, financing was difficult in the first half of the year,” CEO Tom Werner said. “But (it) is improving.”

Werner said the company’s recently announced 24 MW plant in Montalto, Italy, is evidence of the change. “Smaller plants (between 1 and 25 MW) are easier to get financed in the current environment,” he said.

A boost in financing would go a long way toward accelerating growth in this emerging industry. So far this year, demand for solar panels has been soft and prices tumbled from over production. SunPower said its prices fell 10 percent in the third quarter and a similar decline is expected in the fourth.

But the company said business conditions are improving. It said it bid on more than 2 GW of projects in the third quarter – projects that can take a year or longer to come under contract. Still, a less than expected projection of 2010 growth pushed its stock sharply lower in late Wall Street trading.


Smart Grids Will Bring Massive Data Center Buildouts At Utilities

October 22, 2009

Mention smart grid and most people think of advanced electric meters sending reams of information to utilities.

That information is hoped to help consumers make better decisions about when and why they use energy.

But there is another key component to the consumer-facing smart grid beyond the so-called smart meter. Utilities need powerful new, Google-like data centers to make sense of all the information they will receive.

Electricity use data will flow into utility data centers as quickly as every 15 minutes instead of once a day

Electricity use data will flow into utility data centers as quickly as every 15 minutes instead of once a day

Utilities are in varying degrees of preparing their data centers for this new smart-grid world, says Inbar Lasser-Raab, senior director of marketing for network and smart grid systems at Cisco Systems. Some are focused first on the communications infrastructure (i.e.: installing smart meters). Others have already begun to tackle the necessary data center build outs.

In either case, the industry appears to be facing a massive remaking of its compute and storage infrastructure over the next several years to deliver on the promise of a more intelligent, more responsive electric grid.

The challenging facing these typically slow moving companies is speed. In the past they might receive data about electric use once a day. In the next few years, that could accelerate to every 15 minutes.

“We’re definitely working with utilities on their data-center infrastructure,” says Lasser-Raab. Some say they expect their facilities to carry them for several years. Others are making plans to boost capacity.

“It’s an industry that is really energized,” she said. And that is a necessary change, both in the data center and outside of it.


Cautious Outlook Toward Wind Energy Leader Vestas

October 22, 2009

Vestas Wind Systems has the largest share of the wind turbine business and more production capacity than any of its competitors.

Yet, the company is seeing erosion in its market position at just the wrong time: credit markets for wind farms are loosening up and U.S. stimulus money has begun flowing.

More risk in growth next year, even in a recovering market

More risk in growth next year, even in a recovering market

Vestas will benefit from the spending in the United States and from a general uptick in wind farm growth next year. But some Wall Street analysts are taking a cautious approach to the Danish company as rivals General Electric and Siemens come stalking.

In a research note from one – John Hardy at Broadpoint AmTech – the question of the company’s business projection for next year came front and center. He says risk in annual performance is rising and estimates revenue should increase 18 percent.

That would be less than the 20 percent growth management has forecast in 2009. But even this is up for grabs. In the company’s second quarter report, shipments were down 20 percent and the orders backlog was off 45 percent, notes Hardy.

The challenge for Vestas is maintaining pricing – it charges more for its turbines – while solidifying its market share. The company has 42 percent of the market, but is losing share at about 5 percent a month.

The wind market should be whirling next year. The question is whether Vestas will whirl along with it.


Second Generation Biofuels Still Twice As Expensive As Ethanol

October 21, 2009

America has turned a cold shoulder to ethanol and biodiesel.

Not a single ethanol or biodiesel plant has been funded this year and the prospects for the months ahead don’t look good. More than 1.4 billion gallons of ethanol production capacity sits idle. An additional 590 million gallons of biodiesel output is doing the same.

No ethanol plants have been funded this year in the United States

No ethanol plants have been funded this year in the United States

Second generation biofuels, those made with grasses, wood chips or other non-feed stocks, are finding it equally hard to jumpstart a business. The enzymes necessary to convert raw material into sugars are still evolving and costs are twice those of ethanol, or about $4 a gallon, reports John Jay Brunson, vice president at Industrial Info Resources’ alternatives fuels group.

The race is on to build a profitable, commercial biofuels industry in the United States. Unfortunately, no one seems to be winning.

The federal government is hoping to bring new energy to the market. It recently awarded $358 million in grants to six second-generation, or cellulosic, fuel companies. One of them, Verenium announced on Wednesday a trial attempt to produce biofuels from the residue of paper processing.

In addition, 35 other pilot plants are under construction in the U.S. with capital spending of about $3.3 billion, says Industrial Info.

With the ethanol market saturated with product and high-cost hurdles facing second generation biofuels, the government’s goal of 16 billion gallons a year in little more than a decade seems awfully far off.

Clearly a cost breakthrough and new distribution infrastructure is needed. So too are lower prices for E-85, or ethanol burning, cars.

A lot of pain is ahead if the country is to run on biofuel.


Wave Of New Patents Highlights Innovation In Ocean Energy

October 21, 2009

A surge of new U.S. patents over the past several years spotlights the rapid push underway to develop ocean energy.

Issued patents have risen four fold in six years.

Issued patents have risen four fold in six years.

Major hurdles still confront these efforts to mine energy from the wind, waves and shifting tides. The greatest are the operational and maintenance challenges brought on by the corrosive nature of salt water and the storm power of wind and surf.

But few doubt the huge potential. In 2008, less than 10 MW of ocean energy generating capacity was installed. Estimates show that hydro resources, including the oceans, could generate up to 250 GW in 20 years.

In the more distant future, oceans are thought to be able to supply as much as 100,000 terawatt hours of energy per year, a gargantuan total.

According to a study by the law firm Sterne Kessler Goldstein & Fox, the number of ocean energy related patents rose four fold in the past six years, from two a quarter in 2002 to eight in 2008. Key recipients include General Electric, SRI International, Northern Power Systems and Verdant Power, which is developing a tidal turbine for New York City’ East River.

Since 1976, there have been a total of 1,487 patents issued in wind energy, 677 in wave energy and 299 in tidal energy. Among the top innovations are:

*Lightweight, durable composites for underwater structural gear;

*Bi-stable materials with two different states depending upon conditions to enhance the aerodynamics and hydrodynamics of devices, such as turbine blades.

According to Sterne Kessler Goldstein & Fox, the industry is ripe for competition. No dominant companies exist and patents show technologies approaching the point of commercialization.


US Wind Farm Construction Increases In Third Quarter

October 20, 2009

The U.S. wind power industry installed 1,649 MW of new capacity in the third quarter with Texas, Oregon and Illinois the top states for new farms.

The additions top those in the same quarter last year and represent an investment of nearly $6.5 billion. The fourth quarter, however, is unlikely to be as impressive. The nation has 5,000 MW of projects under construction compared with 8,000 MW at the same time in 2008, said the American Wind Energy Association.

In the third quarter, growth was fastest in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Wyoming and New Mexico. Texas added the most – 436 MW – followed by Oregon, which installed 251 MW.

The country now has 31,000 MW of wind power or enough to power 9 million homes. The top states for installations are Texas, Iowa and California.


Venture Capitalists More Comfortable Writing Big Clean Tech Checks

October 20, 2009

Venture capitalists invested $4.8 billion in 637 startups during the third quarter, according to Tuesday’s MoneyTree survey.

This is a 17 percent increase in dollars from the second quarter, but a 3 percent decline in the number of deals, said the National Venture Capital Association, PricewaterhouseCoopers and Thomson Reuters, who compile the study. What’s the explanation?

The risk profile is changing in an industry where winning investments will need to bring in more dollars

The risk profile is changing in an industry where winning investments will need to bring in more dollars

It turns out the bump in dollars is the result of several large investments in clean tech startups, including the ninth largest deal completed since 1995.

In other words, the practice of doling out small sums of money to adventurous software startups or Internet gurus with the latest Twitter-like plan is changing. Venture capitalists are becoming more accustomed to dishing out the big sums to companies building solar plants, ethanol facilities or battery ventures that ultimately require substantial manufacturing lines. It is a big change in an industry where investment rounds have been falling and risk taking subsiding.

Here is the lay of the land from Mark Heesen, president of the NVCA:

“The third quarter illustrates a gradual and deliberate industry shift towards a longer term venture capital investment strategy, Venture capitalists are becoming increasingly focused on industry sectors which require multiple rounds of financing for an extended time horizon.  Companies in areas such as clean technology and life sciences require significant capital and expertise often over a 10 (to) 12 year period, resulting in more follow on rounds, higher average investment levels, and a longer average time to a successful exit.  This is not to suggest that the venture capital industry will abandon shorter term IT investment.  Rather, the mix of investments will become much more balanced.”

If this is true, it is a sign a greater share of investment portfolios will shift to clean tech and that investment returns will need to be measured over an increasing number of years. It also suggests that paybacks – either through IPOs or M&A takeouts – will have to be larger to satisfy meat-hungry general partners.

Both will hike risks in an industry facing massive consolidation and a shirking ability to raise funds. So hold onto your hat!

Here are the top three (large) clean tech deals for the third quarter: Solyndra of Fremont, CA, $286 million; Tesla Motors of San Carlos, CA, $82.5 million; and Serious Materials of Sunnyvale, CA, $60 million.


Who Is Telling The Truth About Clean Tech Investing?

October 20, 2009

Just today, the National Venture Capital Association released its VC investment survey for the third quarter.

Three organizations reporting, three widely different reports

Three organizations reporting, three widely different reports

Clean tech? Up 89 percent from the second quarter to $898 million. That is still down 17 percent from last year, but a heck of a lot better than the $415 million reported last week by Dow Jones VentureSource.

And both are a world away from the $1.59 billion that the Cleantech Group said early this month was invested by venture capitalists worldwide during the three months.

All three groups bring reputable firepower to help collect the numbers. The Cleantech Group uses Deloitte while the NVCA harnesses the services of PricewaterhouseCoopers and Thomson Reuters. Dow Jones, of course, relies on the corporate counting skills of Dow Jones.

So what explains the differences? Likely a matter of definition over what to categorize as clean tech v. high tech or biotech. The three disciplines are increasingly colliding. So who should readers believe? How about an average of the three?  That would equate to $967 million invested in 71 startups (an average of the NVCA’s 57, VentureSources’s 23 and Cleantech Group’s 134).

Still a bit of an uptick from the second quarter and sign of a slowly mending business.

Here are the top four clean-tech deals for the quarter from the NVCA (see all the details on the organization’s web site): Solyndra of Fremont, CA, $286 million; Tesla Motors of San Carlos, CA, $82.5 million; Serious Materials of Sunnyvale, CA, $60 million; and Kosmos Energy of Dallas, $56.5 million.


Teradata Labs Chief Downplays Database Machines From Oracle, HP, Netezza

October 20, 2009

Teradata R&D boss Scott Gnau dismisses competitors

At Teradata’s user conference this week in Washington D.C., I chatted with CTO Scott Gnau about the database company main competitors (Oracle, IBM and a lesser extend HP Neoview and Netezza) as well as its views on cloud computing, virtualisation and Flash-memory.

“Our win-rate [against competitors] is much higher than 50%,” says Gnau.

Let’s try to understand why with part 1 of our interview with Scott Gnau on Teradata competitors.

What are your thoughts on Oracle’s Exadata database machine version 2?

The architecture of Exadata v.2 still has the same bottleneck than the prior version, because it’s still a rack, a monolithic non-parallel database. The database is a single instance on the rack, a single point of failure, and it will [fail]. The only implementation of the [Oracle] rack that I’ve seen are for failover and disaster recovery. So it’s not a massively scalable database.

But Oracle did optimise their I/O channel. So it’s running better certainly in a lot of comparisons of Oracle [v.1] to Oracle [v.2]. But they haven’t fixed the memory locking that exists in the normal frontside Oracle database in the rack.

So when you get to the level where you need to do extreme datamining, it’s constrained. But if you want to do simple reporting, simple list pulls, it works okay!

IBM?

I heard they had something coming last week! The rumour is that it’s coming soon! [probably at next week's Information OnDemand 2009 conference in Las Vegas where Big Blue should unveil a database machine competing with Oracle's Exadata].

And HP’s inability to compete with its Neoview offering?

You can use hammer to put a screw in the wall. But a screwdriver works much better. I think they are trying to retrofit some technologies and have had some trouble. Does go to proof that one person [Mark Hurd, in this case, who was a supporter of Teradata while at NCR] can’t a change a company sometimes!

Finally, Netezza?

They have got this hardware assist but they still got a problem in a host node, kind of the front end, where the actual database isn’t parallel. They have the same bottleneck than Oracle, but they have a lot less robust database [than Oracle] (feature, functionality, integration). So they have similar architecture constrain. But if you want to go run a couple reports that are not complicated, well defined, it will work fine. But if you want to do more – and that’s where the money is – you’re going to find yourself limited.


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