Electric Cars Need $200/Barrel Oil To Sell Well

October 7, 2009

Hybrids will do well with consumers. But all-electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids will struggle unless the price of oil skyrockets.

Only 4% Of vehicles sold will be plug-in hybrids or all-electrics with oil at $200 a barrel, says Lux Research

Only 4% Of vehicles sold will be plug-in hybrids or all-electrics with oil at $200 a barrel, says Lux Research

That’s the judgment of Lux Research in a widely publicized study of the electric vehicle market over the next 10 years. The conclusion that demand for these cars and trucks will trickle instead of gush runs counter to some expectations of a sharp spike in consumer interest.

Obviously one market drawback is the distance electric vehicles can drive on a charged battery – from 50 miles or a couple hundred. This is a noted contrast to the several hundred an average internal combustion car can cover and the ease with which a driver can find a fresh tank of gas.

But more important is price, says Lux. “Even in the scenario with $200 (a barrel) oil in 2020, only about 4% of the vehicles sold worldwide will be (plug-in hybrids) or (all-electrics) due to the high costs of the battery technology for these vehicles,” the study projects.

If oil prices remain closer to $70 a barrel, only hybrids will do well. Sales should be about 3 million vehicles annually by 2020. Plug-ins hybrids will see similar sales levels only if oil rises to $200 a barrel, Lux finds. All-electrics will add up to one-tenth the total.

That said, light plug-in hybrids could be best sellers in the U.S. with oil at $200 and the lithium-ion battery a big winner. The market for lithium-ion batteries designed for electric vehicles could expand to $9 billion by 2020, even as the price of batteries fall from $720 a KWh today to as low as $405 a KWh.

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Posted by Mark Boslet

Banker Reveals How The Pentagon Is Subsidising Foreign Oil Imports To U.S.

October 6, 2009

The U.S. has only itself to blame - and the U.S. military - for its dependency on foreign oil

The U.S. has only itself to blame - and the U.S. military - for its dependency on foreign oil

What a shocker!

According to the GrowthPoint Technology Partners‘ managing director Robert Horstmeyer, the U.S. military helps subsidising the price of the country’s foreign oil imports to a staggering $50 per barrel of crude; today the barrel of crude rose a bit over $70.

All energies are subsidised, not just the clean, renewable ones

So if Horstmeyer’s calculation is right, the “real” price of gasoline in the U.S. should be closer to $5-$6 a gallon than the average price of $3 in California today, for example.

“It’s very difficult to figure out, when you’re looking at different energy supply, what the real cost of energy is. Everything is subsidised and some of it is dramatically subsidised,” explains Horstmeyer, speaking at an event on solar energy hosted by the SDForum.

The investment banker claims – citing military sources – that the Pentagon is spending about a third of its defense budget – which represents $518.3 billion in fiscal year 2009 – to protect the oil fields in the Middle East, “plus 2 wars!”

“So we’re talking hundreds of billions of dollars a year to import maybe 10 million barrels a day. So if we want to cost that oil properly, we should add $50 a barrel to those imported barrels coming from the Middle East,” explains the investment banker.

Follows are 2 video excerpts. The first related to Horstmeyer’s comments on oil subsidies and the second is his introduction remarks.

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Posted by TechPulse 360

Telsa Repair Crews To Make House Calls

October 6, 2009

And you thought house calls were a relic of the past – a vestige of government run national health services such as the NHS in Britain.

Tesla to charge $1 a roundtrip mile with a minimum fee of $100.

Tesla to charge $1 a roundtrip mile with a minimum fee of $100.

Think again. High-end electric car company Tesla Motors has another idea.

The company on Tuesday announced the Tesla Rangers, a repair service that will dispatch mobile crews for house calls in the United States and Canada

The cost: $1 per roundtrip mile with a minimum charge of $100.

In a blog post, Tesla – which has now sold 700 of its $109,000 plus Roadsters – said the $1 a mile charge is less than the cost of providing the fix-it and maintenance service. “We believe that our mobile service strategy offers peace of mind,” the company said.

The strategy also may be a bet on Roadster quality and design. The 244-mile all electric vehicle requires less routine service than a typical car with an internal combustion engine.

“It does not need regular oil changes or exhaust work,” the company’s blog post pointed out. “Roadsters have fewer breakable moving parts, no spark plugs, pistons, hoses, belts or clutches to replace. Zero tailpipe emission means no smog checks. We recommend a standard service and diagnostic inspection once a year or every 12,000 miles.”

And even that can now be done at home or the office. In addition to the annual inspection, firmware upgrades and electronic module replacements can be done by the mobile crews.

Just call the Tesla Rangers – and get out your checkbook.

We recommend an annual service but no oil changes or exhaust work, Tesla says

We recommend an annual service but no oil changes or exhaust work, Tesla says

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Posted by Mark Boslet

Larry Ellison On The Econony: U.S. Consumers Broke; No Recovery Ahead

October 6, 2009
Oracle chief wants to impose tariffs on goods originating from China and India

Oracle chief wants to impose tariffs on goods originating from China and India

The Oracle co-founder and CEO Larry Ellison has a dismal view on the future of the U.S. economy and sees no recovery in sight.

“Somebody said it’s going to be an L-shaped recovery: down, not coming back. I believe that,” said the software executive.

Ellison argues that the U.S. consumer is so deeply in debt that the economy will not come back at least before 5-years; during which the U.S. economy will not be the world’s engine of growth as used to be, while U.S. consumers start saving to pay off their debts.

The Oracle CEO also expects a higher tax regime to pay for some of the Obama’s administration initiatives.

“I’m surprised that there are so many huge spending programmes, like the stimulus package ($800 billion), the health-care bill ($1 trillion), cap and trade ($1 billion)… There are a lot of things that is going on right now that make me believe that we’re not going to have a rapid recovery,” adds Ellison.

Follows, is the video excerpt of Larry Ellison on the state of the economy:

Oracle CEO favours tariffs on imported goods from India and China

Ellison also explained that the U.S. should impose tariffs on imported goods along with its decision to adopt the cap and trade programme.

“Because you can’t suddenly say that energy is going to be very expensive in the U.S. which would send manufacturing overseas and without having tariffs on things coming back to the U.S. for countries like India and China who said very clearly that they have no interest in monitoring their CO2 output until they have the same per capita CO2 output as the U.S… As a results, China will be able to increase their CO2 output by a factor of 4,” adds Ellison.

Follows another video excerpt where the Oracle CEO talks about imposing tariffs on goods coming from India and China:

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Posted by TechPulse 360

Oracle Chief Opposes Net Neutrality

October 6, 2009
Net neutrality is bad for competition argues Oracles chief

Net neutrality is bad for competition argues Oracle's chief

Larry Ellison sided with operators on net neutrality, a position that was largely overlooked during his last appearance at the Churchill Club last month.

The Oracle chief argued that letting the U.S. government regulate pricing on carriers’ networks is wrong, favouring Google and the likes and ultimately stifling competition.

“I think it’s very dangerous for the government to engage in pricing for companies…  In general I believe in free markets and this is the case where government regulation is not necessary,” said Ellison.

Here’s the video excerpt where the Oracle CEO discusses his views on net neutrality:

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Posted by TechPulse 360

ExxonMobil Lobs New Invectives At Cap And Trade

October 6, 2009

ExxonMobil has repeatedly lashed out at Congresses cap-and-trade bill ever since CEO Rex Tillerson took aim at it in January.

More dire predictions from ExxonMobil, but what about success of the EU cap-and-trade system?

More dire predictions from ExxonMobil, but what about success of the EU cap-and-trade system?

The bill, passed by the House of Representatives, will create volatility in energy prices, the uncertainty of a new financial market for trading pollution allowances and a vast new bureaucracy, the company has argued

In its recent Lamp magazine for shareholders, the attacked continued.

The bill will damage the U.S. economy, add unnecessary burdens to families, and create an economic disadvantage for American companies, said the company’s Vice President of Environmental Policy and Planning Sherri Stuewer in a published interview.

By picking industries to be shielded from the costs of cap-and-trade, it could result in the loss of domestic jobs and transfer as much as $60 billion of U.S. money overseas, she added.

Further, it targets local refining, increasing the nation’s reliance on petroleum imports and endangering national security, Stuewer said.

Whew! Good thing that didn’t happen to the EU from its cap-and-trade system or it would be in hell or high water.

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Posted by Mark Boslet

Tech Price Watch: External 2TB Disk Drives For $180

October 6, 2009
An external 2TB disk drive from SimpleTech is only $10 more than the internal equivalent from Seagate

An external 2TB disk drive from SimpleTech is only $10 more than its internal equivalent from Seagate

Disk drive prices simply defy gravity… and probably economics too!

Looking at Fry’s Electronics daily ads in the San Jose Mercury News, I couldn’t help but being amazed at how quickly disk drives prices are plunging on a weekly, if not daily basis.

Today, the best value for an internal drive, is the 1.5TB 3.5″ Samsung drive at only $80. If you prefer an external drive, SimpleTech’s 2TB Duo Pro Drive Quad (Firewire, eSATA and USB) is hard to beat at only $180. And an external 2TB Seagate desktop drive will cost you $180.

If that’s still too much, I’m sure you can still find SimpleTech’s 1TB external drive for under $90 or its internal cousin (from Hitachi) at $85!

For laptops, Hitachi is still the king of the hill with a 500GB notebook hard drive at just $80 (and just $10 more on Amazon). I also liked Seagate’s 1.5TB Expansion drive for $125, although it’s only $5 more at Amazon with free shipping.

Really no matter where you buy your drive, you’ll almost certain to get a bargain. Happy shopping!

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Posted by TechPulse 360

Could Persian Gulf Oil Nations Also Supply Our Bio Jet Fuel?

October 6, 2009

The desert economies of the Middle East supply much of the oil we refine into gasoline to run our cars and trucks. Now they want to supply our bio jet fuel.

Study to examine whether Persian Gulf saltwater mangroves can grow halophyte biofuel producing plant

Study to examine whether Persian Gulf saltwater mangroves can grow halophyte biofuel producing plant

Boeing, Honeywell and the Masdar Institute of Science and Technology of Abu Dhabi will join forces to decide whether salt-friendly halophyte plants that grow in the arid climate of the Persian Gulf can become sources of biofuel.

Their study will be conducted in Abu Dhabi with results available in late 2010.

The aim is to learn whether salicornia bigelovii, known as halophyte, can be grown in large quantity in the saltwater mangroves on the coast of this tiny country bordering Oman and Saudi Arabia.

They are known to be highly productive sources of biomass energy and are easy on the environment because they can be irrigated with seawater. Early testing indicates that with improved plant science and agronomy, “halophytes have the potential to deliver very high yields per unit of land,” according to a press release announcing the test.

Yale University’s School of Forestry and Environmental Studies also will participate in the work.

The study intends to look at land use needs, the energy requirements of large scale production and identify any potential environmental hazards. A successful outcome could enable the United Arab Emirates to “transition into a less fossil fuel dependent economy,” said Sgouris Sgouridis of the Masdar Institute.

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Posted by Mark Boslet

Cisco Smart Grid Trial Appears To Run Cross Grain In Europe Where Power Lines Are Favored Network

October 5, 2009

Cisco Systems kicked off a closely watched smart grid trial in Germany on Monday with broad implications for the industry – particularly in Europe.

Ciscos German smart grid trial is the companys fourth publicly announced test

Cisco's German smart grid trial is the company's fourth publicly announced test

The company, in partnership with German utility Yello Strom, will connect 70 homes and businesses to the electrical infrastructure using an IP network. Building owners will be able to measure the power consumption of their appliances and set use during periods of off-peak power.

Power use will be updated every 15 minutes.

The trial, announced two weeks ago, is Cisco’s fourth publicly announced test. (Other pilots are being conducted with utilities in private.) Like the trial Cisco began in Austin, TX, last year, it appears to be using broadband Internet connections instead of power lines networks, which are typically favored for pilots in Europe. U.S. utilities opt for Internet connections.

Cisco also has trials in Amsterdam and Miami.

The cross-grain approach will likely make the trial closely watched – and points to the unsettled nature of smart grid standards. It also serves as a reminder of the potential profits at stake.

By some estimates, the smart grid market is a $20 billion opportunity for companies selling products and services. Being in the right place with the right technology could be a real advantage.

The newly launched trial isn’t the first smart grid effort for Yello. The utility, with 1.4 million customers, has offered smart meters since 2008.  According to a press release, the Yello “Sparzaehler” an online smart electricity meter will be part of the Cisco pilot as well, letting customers receive information about their consumption.

Cisco said the German pilot is a step toward broader smart grid deployment in central Europe. With smart grids gaining steam and standards still in flux, the decision to be in as many trials are possible is probably a good one.

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Posted by Mark Boslet

Wind Energy Facing Three Years Of Stagnation

October 5, 2009

Wind Energy will not shrug off the sluggish U.S. economy until 2011, when growth will resume.

Noth American market was the worlds fastest growing in 2008

Noth American market was the world's fastest growing in 2008

That is the outlook from Pike Research for the North American market place, which grew faster than the rest of the world last year.

In 2008, wind power generation grew by 50 percent, with companies adding 9 GW of capacity and ending the year with 27 GW in place.

But it will be 2011 before growth resumes. The “turbine market will resume its growth in 2011 following three years of stagnation,” the firm said. Then, from 2010 to 2015, 40,000 new units will be installed, with new farms going in and old turbines being replaced.

About 45 percent of sales will be replacements.

In other words, with project financing still difficult to get, more tough times are ahead for wind power

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Posted by Mark Boslet

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