A sobering energy report from the International Energy Agency predicts that saving the world from global warming will cost $10.5 trillion.
The surprisingly daunting and closely watched IEA’s World Energy Outlook is especially timely this year, coming out Tuesday, just before the start of the Copenhagen climate talks next month.
Goal is to keep temperatures to 2 degree Celsius above pre industrial levels
It forecasts that energy consumption will fall in 2009 due to the worldwide recession. But demand for power will shortly reverse course and begin to climb again, jumping 40 percent by 2030.
More so, “current trends in energy use puts the world on track for a rise in temperature of up to 6 degrees Centigrade and poses a serious threat to global energy security,” the report states. Climate scientists have already warned that a smaller rise than this might bring about irreversible planetary changes.
The study claims that China and India are expected to account for more than half of the projected increase in energy demand over the next 20 years. By 2025, China will overtake the United States as biggest spender on oil and gas imports.
The world’s response must be aggressive and committed to heading off an environmental disaster. The study proposes limiting greenhouse gases to 450 parts per million or less, which would keep temperatures about 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. To accomplish this, fossil fuel demand will need to peak in 2020 and by 2030 greenhouse gas emission will need to fall below 2007 levels.
Energy efficiency will be the largest contributor to this goal. Half of emissions cuts can come from making homes, businesses, cars and other devices more efficient.
Low carbon energy sources also play a part and must account for 60 percent of energy production, Renewables are to contribute 37 percent; nuclear, 18 percent; and carbon capture, 5 percent. Hybrids and electric vehicles must make up 60 percent of sales by 2030, a dramatic rise from 1 percent today.
All this will cost $10.5 trillion, the IEA says, with some of the expense coming in the form of a payback – an $8.6 trillion reduction in energy bills.
Yikes!
Source: International Energy Agency
