It may be four or five years out. But solar companies continue to show progress toward the critical crossover, where the costs of energy from the sun best those from fossil fuels.
Utility industry executives say the timeline they see for solar panels is becoming more convincing. Costs over the next five years seem likely to drop substantially, increasing the possibility of major deployments.
It's no walk in the park, but technology timelines are more convincing.
For their part, solar manufacturers say development hurdles remain. But laboratory work continues on products that in the next couple years will pave the path for what the industry likes to call “grid parity” in the years to follow.
One such manufacturer is Applied Quantum Technology, which is presently raising $20 million of venture capital. The Santa Clara company projects its thin-film cells will reach 14 percent efficiency next year and up to 18 percent efficiency by 2014. By 2014, or 2013 at the earliest, the cells should cost 50 cents a watt, or comparable to the cost of fossil fuels, CEO Michael Bartholomeusz said Tuesday at the Dow Jones Alternative Energy Innovations conference.
“It’s certainly not a walk in the park,” he said during an interview. But it is achievable.
Cryscade Solar is using a technology patterned after photosynthesis
The company plans to produce its CIGS, or copper iridium gallium sulfide/selenium, cells in six-inch squares so they can easily substitute for today’s polysilicon cells.
Cryscade Solar also claims significant progress with cell efficiency. The company’s technology is patterned after plant photosynthesis and is projected to reach 20 percent efficiency by 2011.
A more ambitious cell with 49 percent efficiency is a longer-range target and will lead to costs of 13 cents a watt, says Chairman Pavel Lazarev. The early stage company wants to raise $15 million.
Further along is Solexant, which just completed a 2 MW manufacturing facility in San Jose. Early next year production will begin on thin-film cells costing 30 cents a watt. The company’s technology prints circuits on a piece of flexible backing.
By 2010, their efficiency should reach a “double digit” percentage, says CEO Damoder Reddy.
