Solar Companies Surviving On Thin Profit Margins. Does That Spell Fabless

December 10, 2009

The world’s largest contract manufacturer of semiconductors, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. of Taiwan, announced this week it will enter the solar cell business.

The firm said it would pay $6.2 billion for a stake in the solar cell producer Motech Industries, hastening its ability to pursue this fast growing market.

Will profit margins of 10% before taxes lead solar cell makers to contract manufacturers?

Trouble is contract manufacturers already work on thin profit margins. The solar business could tax even their lean operations.

According to Broadpoint AmTech analyst John Hardy, the industry has a slim profit margin of about 10 percent even before it pays taxes. And his calculation is based on an average solar cell selling price of $2 a watt, a number likely to decline at least modestly in 2010.

Hardy studied the finances of six producers to reach his conclusion, including Canadian Solar, JA Solar Holdings and several other Chinese manufacturers.  He said solar producers have it tough right from the start.

Raw material and processing costs add up to $1.58 a watt, most of the $2 selling price. That equates to a gross margin of a slim 21 percent.

Add in operating expenses, interest on financing and tax and the companies struggle to make a buck. The big observation from all this may be one few analysts yet expect.

With big contract manufacturers such as TSMC now showing interest in solar, the industry could poised to follow in the footsteps of the computer chip business to a fabless, or factory-less, model.

The advantage is lower costs, since a company the size of TSMC can negotiate better poly-silicon costs with its enormous clout and spread the fixed cost of manufacturing over a large base of customers.

The downside is that solar cell production is not yet standardized the way semiconductor manufacturing is. As it moves in that direction, companies are likely to begin thinking twice about operating their own plants.

And cell makers will mirror their semiconductor cousins and go factory-less.

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Posted by Mark Boslet

Missouri In Vanguard By Using Solar To Warm Icy Bridges

December 9, 2009

The Show-Me state wants to be convinced solar panels can combat winter ice on municipal bridges.

Snow plowing and road salting could be reduced by solar power radient heat system

So it signed a contract to test a solar-powered radiant-heat system on two bridges near St. Louis. The system pumps a solar heated antifreeze solution through tubing in the road deck, melting ice and snow.

The state is among the first in the nation to attempt such a project.

The novel use of solar cells is conceived by Pave Guard Technologies, which will get construction under way in 2010.

Missouri plans to expand the program if it is successful.

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Posted by Mark Boslet

The Dirty Secret Behind Solar Energy

December 9, 2009

It is no secret that solar energy is a dynamic market with fierce competition among the industry’s biggest players.

Large solar farms require the use of a regulating generator to ease the power into the grid. Generators run on coal or natural gas.

First Solar presently wears for the crown for being the volume leader. The company has between 13 percent and 16 percent of the market, depending on who is counting.

Suntech Power Holdings of China follows with perhaps half that total. Sharp is a close third with sales that almost tie it for second.

It is unlikely that smaller companies will overtake these leaders in the next few years. The cost of adding enough factory space is prohibitive. Production is already at the GW level.

But jostling among these big dogs will continue. Lux Research is one firm that predicts Suntech will out duel rival First Solar to grab the market’s top spot by 2013. It is adding manufacturing capacity at a rapid pace and selling out its product line in China’s super heated solar market. Sharp will remain third.

But none of this competition will hide solar’s dirty secret. That’s because to feed solar (and wind) power into today’s electrical grids utilities must use large generators that run on coal or gas – dirty sources of energy, says energy consultant Victor Babbitt.

The problem is that solar and wind are intermittent power sources. The sun burns brightly during the midday, but a cloud can cover it in a matter of seconds and sharply up the energy stream. The electrical grid, on the other hand, needs to be carefully balanced, with energy supply and load in harmony. When the power from a solar farm surges in a short period of time (as much as 50 percent in 30 second after a cloud unblocks the sun) grids can become unstable.

That’s why regulating generator are used to ditch power the grid can’t absorb. This issue will go away when big storage batteries are in place to save the energy for later use. But until then, “green” energy requires millions of tons of CO2 to integrate it into the grid, says Babbitt in a blog post.

It is solar’s not-so-little dirty secret.

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Posted by Mark Boslet

Google Chrome For Mac Lacks Bookmarks Tool, OS X Integration

December 8, 2009

Google co-founder Sergey Brin must be a happy man today; after several months of waiting, his company finally released yesterday Chrome for the Mac.

But so far, my experience with Google’s Internet  browser is a mixed bag. Overall, I prefer its user interface from Safari (clicking on the address bar highlights it, opening new Web apps in new tabs really works, the address bar *is* the search box, feels faster…), despite using Apple’s browser for years.

Chrome for Mac lacks proper bookmarks management, Mac OS integration, email page function and extensions

However, Google Chrome for Mac doesn’t offer the same level of integration than Safari, especially with iPhoto: I’m so used to copy a photo from a Web page right into iPhoto with a click of a mouse. I just can’t do that anymore with Chrome.

Most frustrating with Chrome is its poor bookmarks management, or the lack thereof. For example, you can’t delete a bookmark inside a bookmark folder, or get rid of the “Other Bookmarks” folder. Also, it’s not possible to email a Web page. This function is also a no-show on Chrome’s Windows version.

Google also said that “extensions” for Chrome’s Mac version are coming soon. It’s still very early for me to know what these extensions will bring to my overall experience, but despite some missing features, Chrome is now my default browser on all my Macs and Windows machines, and my Android phone of course! Now, if Google could synchronise all of them – like Opera can with the version 10 of its browser – that’ll be bliss!

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Posted by TechPulse 360

Nano-Coating Improves Solar Cell Efficiency By Reducing Reflected Light

December 8, 2009

Solar cells reflect light – even as they absorb it to produce electricity.

Five Stanford University researchers hope to keep the unused rays from getting away. In a November research paper, the electrical engineers unveiled a breakthrough they cal nanodome. They claim it improves the efficiency of a simple solar cell by 25 percent.

A field of microscopic nanodomes keeps reflected light from leaving a solar cell

By applying a thin coasting that under the microscope looks like a field of tiny domes, the reflected light is captured and turned to energy.

“Nanodome solar cells with only a 280 nm thick hydrogenated amorphous silicon (a-Si:H) layer can absorb 94% of the light with wavelengths of 400−800 nm, significantly higher than the 65% absorption” without the domes, according to their research.

In a low-power cell like those used on wristwatches, 35 percent of light can be reflected back into the sky. With Nanodome technology, the efficiency can be improved to 5.9 percent from 4.7 percent, 25 percent improvement.

“The nanodome structure is not in principle limited to any specific material system and its fabrication is compatible with most solar manufacturing; hence it opens up exciting opportunities…to further improve performance, (and) reduce materials usage,” the report said.

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Posted by Mark Boslet

ExxonMobile Paints Pessimistic Picture Of Renewable Energy

December 8, 2009

The world’s largest oil company claimed Tuesday that the world will need to spend trillions of dollars to satisfy its thirst for energy during the next 20 years, but that renewable sources, such as solar and wind, will play only a small role.

ExxonMobile’s decidedly pessimistic assessment of the role of renewable energy came in report entitled “Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030.”

ExxonMobile says energy efficiency will curb the growth in energy demand by 65%

In it, the company said the use of solar, wind energy and biofuel will increase on average 10 percent a year. But their contribution will still amount to only about 2.5 percent of energy use by 2030.

If so, that could put many of the world’s ambitious renewables targets – such as California’s call for 33% contribution – out of reach.

ExxonMobile predicted energy demand would increase 35 percent during the 20 years as the Earth’s population grows to almost 8 billion and living standards in developing countries improve.

A variety of energy sources will be needed, with natural gas playing a big role in the United States, where supplies have expanded in recent years.

More so, improvements in energy efficiency will play a part by curbing the growth in global energy demand by 65 percent.

But “fossil fuels — oil, natural gas and coal — will continue to meet most of the world’s needs during this period because no other energy source can match their availability, versatility, affordability and scale,” the report stated.

While this final conclusion is no surprise given that ExxonMobile sells oil, and it may be true given the scale of the energy markets,, the report’s renewables outlook is more dire than it need be.

One can only wonder whether it hides some policy motive.

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Posted by Mark Boslet

Google Unveils Real-Time Search With Twitter, Facebook Feeds

December 7, 2009

Earlier today, Google unveiled its real-time plans to add Facebook, MySpace and Twitter feeds to its search engine; catching up with Microsoft’s Bing that unveiled similar features last week in an event in San Francisco, Calif.

Here are Google’s 5 new real-time search features:

  1. “Latest results” on Google search;
  2. “Latest” search option;
  3. “Updates” search option;
  4. “Latest results” on mobile;
  5. and “Hot topics” on Google Trends.

Follows the video of Google’s real-time search event hosted at the Computer History Museum in in Mountain View:

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Posted by TechPulse 360

Solar Energy To Proliferate In The US On Rooftops Not Farms

December 7, 2009

Rooftop solar appears to be the way solar energy will proliferate in the U.S.

Big utility-scale farms are hard to finance, tough to permit and slow to build. Rooftop solar is quick to get up and running, and is reaping the benefit of numerous government benefits, including a 30% federal tax credit, accelerated depreciation and various state incentives

Rooftop solar installation are pojected to expand 75 fold to 76 GW by 2020

The result is that the U.S. rooftop market may rapidly steal the lead away from Europe, says entrepreneurial consultant Javier Herrero. Herrero estimates that rooftop solar capacity in the U.S. was 1,110 MW in 2008 (rising almost seven fold in seven years) and could reach 76 GW by 2020.

The big reason is price. The cost of solar panels has fallen substantially in recent years (including 50 percent this year) and will drop to less than 2 cents a KWh well before 2020. With the drop from about 30 cents to under 2 cents, it will compare favorably to coal, which today is between 1 to 4 cents.

Also favoring rooftops is the ease of installation. Some big farms require laying new high-tension wires to bring the power to metropolitan markets. Most rooftop locations already attach to the power grid, making installation easier.

As costs fall, demand will spike. Already venture investors have begun eying the market, and numerous solar companies have become more active with rooftop deals.

Herrero says European governmental incentives aren’t as kind to rooftop installation as American ones. European countries subsidize production regardless of where it is – farm or rooftop. Many state incentives in the U.S. are friendliest to sites that produce about the same amount of electricity before and after. This is a disadvantage to big farms that are often built on undeveloped property where no electricity was previously generated.

In the U.S. as well, some municipalities have matched another advantage several European countries have had, specifically Germany and Spain, by enacting feed-in tariffs. Now several states hope to follow their lead, specifically California.

For the next several years, rooftop installations are likely to drive the U.S. renewables market. And as they draw numerous entrepreneurs into the business, solar power projects, and the annuities they generate, will be considered a good bet.

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Posted by Mark Boslet

Second Generation Biofuels Get Needed Shot In The Arm With $600 Million Of Federal Money

December 4, 2009

First generation biofuels made from corn, sugar cane and other edible crops continue to make steady, if lackluster, progress.

POET, the nation’s largest producer of Ethanol from corn, says production costs at its South Dakota plant are now $2.35 a gallon. In another two years, the company should be able to compete head-to-head with gasoline.

Energy Department favors advnaced biofuels over corn-based ethanol

The price parity may make little difference. On Friday the Energy Department announced its intent to back second-generation efforts that rely on non-edible plants and which promise more energy per acre.

The DOE doled out more than $600 million in funds and loan guarantees to 19 projects. The money, some of which came from the Agriculture Department, was matched by more than $700 million in private and non-federal funds.

With a relatively small number of advanced refineries in the testing or pilot stage, the financing will prove a powerful accelerant as companies validate technologies for large-scale production. Of the total, $336 million is earmarked for the more advanced of these efforts – demonstration and early commercial projects – and will be matched by $537 million of outside funds.

Included on the list are the Bluefire ethanol refinery in Missouri, the Sapphire Energy algae project in New Mexico and the BioEnergy International sorghum project in Louisiana. Sapphire hopes to cultivate algae to produce diesel and jet fuel.

The $283 million of funding for earlier pilot projects will go to efforts proposed by Arymis Technologies, Archer Daniels Midlands, Solazyme (also working with algae), ZeaChem and others.

The push by the Energy Department clearly represents a determined effort to put biofuels back at the top of the nation’s green agenda alongside solar and wind. It will take years to know whether it succeeds. It will be interesting to watch.

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Posted by Mark Boslet

California Energy Standards For TVs Will Spur Innovation

December 4, 2009

California’s energy standards for flat-panel televisions are the toughest in the world, requiring a 33 percent efficiency improvement by 2011 and a 50 percent gain by 2013.

Critics complain they will stifle innovation and raise prices for televisions affected – those 58 inches and smaller.

Ultra thin, energy efficient LED TVs might benefit from the California standards

But manufacturers such as Samsung disagree. About three quarters of the televisions on store shelves already meet the 2011 standards and about 25 percent pass the 2013 ones.

Samsung says it produces some of them. “We’re already there today,” says Scott Birnbaum, vice president in the company’s LCD business. “We’re not intimidated by these standards.”

An array of new technologies will help manufacturers keep pace with the market changes. The result is an acceleration in innovation, says Birnbaum.

For instance, Samsung is working to further reduce the power demands of LCD backlights with fewer bulbs, more transparent optical screens and transistors with wider apertures. It also is deploying technology to dim areas of the screen that don’t need the most intensive light – such as nighttime skies. Backlights can consume as much as 60 percent of a set’s electricity.

Yet the Golden State’s market is likely to see significant changes in the next several years. Plasma screens, which use more energy than LCDs, will probably see slowing sales. At the same time, more efficient LED will capture a greater share of the market, despite their higher price.

LEDs already are a fast growing segment, says Birnbaum. The bright pictures and micro-thin designs are a powerful draws.

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Posted by Mark Boslet

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