Solar Prices To Fall A More Moderate 10% In 2010

January 15, 2010

Sure, we all know how difficult a year 2009 was. Solar module prices fell a startling 40 percent (after several years of increases) and demand evaporated in the global downturn.

Projections call for a better 2010, though decisions in Germany over how much to cut its feed-in tariff could spoil the party.

The solar market should expand 30 percent in 2010 as measured by installed watts, says DuPont

Perhaps the most reassuring news for solar cell manufacturers is that price declines should be more moderate. When prices fell sharply last year, profit margins slumped with them. Slower declines could strengthen this important gauge of corporate health.

According to DuPont, solar module prices should fall 10 percent this year as the market, measured by installed watts, climbs 30 percent.

The rebound will be led by demand in China, France and the United States (not Germany), says Sung Lee, global marketing director at DuPont Photovoltaic Solutions.

The 30 percent annual growth should continue for several years, Lee said Thursday at the Strategic Materials Conference at Half Moon Bay, California.

Meanwhile, cell efficiency will continue to improve. Efficiencies of 17 percent to 21 percent are expected through 2012 (compared with low teens today). A target of 22 percent will be reached after 2012 as new materials find their way into production lines, Lee says.

However, the cost of supplying the industry with materials will be significant. By 2020, solar factories should have the capacity to produce 100 GW of cells a year – two thirds of the 150 GW of new energy demand – making solar a major source of electricity generation.

But supplying materials to the industry will require companies, such as DuPont, to invest $80 billion in new plants. It is hard to know where that capital will come from, says Lee.

It will likely be a market for big players.

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Posted by Mark Boslet

Behind The Scenes At A123, Fisker Is A Drop In The Bucket

January 14, 2010

A123 Systems made hay Thursday morning by announcing a intimate pact with one of the nation’s most promising new age car maker, Fisker. But the move is only one tiny step in the electric battery maker’s grand ambitions.

An A123 lithium ion cell for plug in hybrids and electric vehicles

The Wall Street darling said it would supply lithium ion batteries for Fisker’s nameplate Karma plug in hybrid, expected late this year.

Karma is expected to have a 50-mile range with its battery and a 300-mile range when using its gasoline powered generator. It also is designed to go from 0 to 60 in 6 seconds, rivaling the performance of the all-electric Tesla Roadster, which already has 1,000 models on the road.

The complicated agreement also has A123 and Fisker working together to develop a battery for Fisker’s second model, the lower priced Nina, slated for 2012.

At the same time, A123 will invest $23 million in the car company, $13 million in cash and $10 in stock. Both companies are among the phalanx of anointed new generation transportation companies receiving grants and loan guarantees from the Department of Energy’s program to promote green technologies.

But behind the scenes, the Fisker deal is but a drop in the ambitious battery maker’s bucket. The company, which launched a well-received IPO last year, announced on Thursday a major expansion of its manufacturing capacity, fueled by its $249 million DOE grant.

The expansion will more than double its Michigan manufacturing capacity by the end of 2010 and give it the ability to produce batteries for more than 320,000 hybrid vehicles or 24,000 plug-in hybrids. – far more than Fisker could hope to produce in several years.

So watch for more deal like the one A123 unveiled today. The company will need the business to fill its newly enlarged plant.

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Posted by Mark Boslet

New Areodynamic Technology Could Remake Wind Turbine Industry

January 14, 2010

An advanced flight technology used to improve the aerodynamics of helicopter blades and aircraft wings could dramatically remake the wind turbine industry, increasing energy generation by as much as 40 percent.

A compressed air technology use to increase lift in helicopters could generate 40% more electricity from wind turbines

The technology, being explored by California based PAX Streamline and the Georgia Institute of Technology, could open vast expanses of the United States thought to be too windless to wind farm development,

Existing turbines could generate substantially more electricity than they do today at lower costs.

The technology – called circulation control – blows compressed air from the trailing edge of blades and wings to add more lift. The added lift lets blades operate effectively at slower speeds and winged craft to take off and land in shorter distances.

Wind turbines using circulation control are anticipated to generate power in winds too light to be harvested today and operate more effectively in high wind conditions that might normally shut down a turbine.

ARPA-E, the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy, awarded $3 million for a two-year demonstration project. Scientists expect the blades they develop to be smaller and less complicated than those used with the present generation of wind turbines.

Yet to be determined is the amount of power necessary to compress the required air and distribute it to turbine towers. According to an early estimate, the towers will produce 30 percent to 40 percent more electricity even after factoring in the compressed air.

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Posted by Mark Boslet

Bridgelux Names Former Seagate Chief Watkins CEO, Raises Another $50 Million

January 12, 2010

Hard drives and computers are so yesterday. Saving energy is so tomorrow.

After a year on the sidelines, Bill Watkins wants to build Bridgelux into a big company

This according to Bill Watkins, former CEO of Seagate Technology and, as of Tuesday, CEO of Bridgelux.

Watkins captained the ship at the world’s largest hard drive maker for five years before leaving last January. He says his goal is to now “scale up” Bridgelux into one of the dominant providers of energy saving LED lighting arrays.

“I want to make a big company,” he says. Computers and hard drives? “I’ve done that. This is about energy efficiency.”

Watkins sees sizeable opportunities for Bridgelux in the $100 billion general lighting market. LEDs will someday replace traditional incandescent bulbs and more energy conscious compact fluorescents, with the change over starting in the commercial and government markets and slowly coming to the residential business.

High prices that have constrained sales will steadily decline, he says. Bulbs that sold for $90 a year ago still cost a pricey $40. That will go to $10, says Watkins. And “it will happen very fast.”

An LED lighting array from Bridgelux. The company says an IPO is possible

He adds that Bridgelux has an enviable position in the market, even though it is a small company battling large competitors, such as Sharp and Toshiba, both of which will enter the market this spring.

The company has better technology, a broader spectrum of light in its bulbs and lower costs. It also offers a more complete product to lighting manufacturers. It is vertically integrated, combining an LED chip with optics, electronics and a substrate to create an array that can be easily assembled into a fixture.

So, will Watkins steer Bridgelux to an IPO? The answer is quite possibly yes. “Never go into a private company not thinking about an IPO,” he says. “We will look at this.”

But probably not right away. That’s because the company also Tuesday announced a more than $50 million round of venture funding that should close in two weeks. The round was over subscribed with more investors angling to get in than Bridgelux could invite.

The money should last the company for some time, says Watkins. At least long enough for this former computer era CEO to burnish his clean-tech image.

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Posted by Mark Boslet

Big Opportunity For Solar Is Peak Energy Supply

January 12, 2010

They are called “peakers” and they are the big opportunity for solar energy over the next decade.

Peakers are power plants that operate when demand for electricity is high, such as on summer days when air conditioners are running full steam.

Solar will provide just 3 percent of global electricity over the next decade, says Applied Materials' Charles Gay

About 800 GW of peakers will be needed over the next 10 years. If solar farms capture just 10 percent of market, panel sales would amount to 80 GW by 2020, says Charles Gay, president of applied solar at Applied Materials. Solar shipments were just 5 GW in 2009.

Since peak demand is often hit on hot, sunny days, conditions would be ideal for the use of solar energy. Cells would be converting sunlight to electricity at high volume.

But, warned Gay, a former director of DoE’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory, pricing pressures are intense in solar, as are pressures for cost reductions. Materials alone make up about 30 percent of the cost of each panel, compared with 13 percent for computer chips.

Perhaps that is why solar fabs are being started in Asia, the Middle East and Europe, but not the U.S.

High costs will keep solar to about 3 percent of global electricity over the next decade, Gay says.

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Posted by Mark Boslet

Tough Ride For Solar Market Will Continue In 2010

January 12, 2010

The solar market was a tough ride in 2009. It could be more tumultuous this year.

That’s because so much of the industry’s sales are tied up in one country – Germany – and subsidized Chinese manufacturers are cutting prices so deeply that competing is nearly impossible.

In a worst case scenario, solar shipments this year could fall below those in 2009, says analyst Paula Mints

The result could be falling sales in 2010 if German policy makers cut the country’s generous feed-in tariff, says Paula Mints, principal analyst at Navigant Consulting.

Mints, who spoke at the Industry Strategy Symposium in Half Moon Bay, said she estimates solar manufacturers shipped 5 GW of panels in 2009. Under the worse case scenario (a dramatic cut in the German subsidy), that could fall to 4.1 GW this year.

A more hopeful outlook with little or no cut from Germany could lead an upswing of 5.5 GW of shipments.

The difficulty hinges on the reality that Germany accounts for 58 percent of sales (76 percent for Europe as a whole). Sure, China is a booming market as the government tries to stimulate domestic purchases, and India is on the rise, too. Demand in the United States also should grow, though not at an explosive rate until 2011.

So what happens in Germany dictates the health of the solar market. So, too, do manufacturers in China, which have been selling panels at almost breakeven. About 52% of solar panels come from China and “prices were so low it was impossible to compete with them” last year, says Mints.

As a result, the industry’s profit margin fell almost 10 percent in 2009 after rising for four years. From a pure revenue perspective, “it will take this industry at least three years to recover and be above 2008” levels, says Mints.

Until then, the tough ride will continue. That is unless the U.S. market takes off earlier than expected. “We need for the U.S. to become a top market for the whole industry to keep moving forward,” she says. “We can’t keep relying on Europe.”

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Sanyo Electric Bike Is Fun But Expensive

January 12, 2010

Sanyo has sold its electric bicycle in Japan for 15 years. In October it finally crossed the big pond and began selling in the United States.

The “eneloop bike” is what the company calls a pedal assist design. The rider pedals, and the electric motor provides a boost, speeding the bike toward its destination.

But don’t expect anything close to motorcycle speeds. The electric motor cuts off after 15 miles an hour. However, it does pack some juice. The thermos-sized battery can go 40 miles between charges.

Sanyo says it is just getting started in the states. But the product has one big strike against it. The bike costs a nickel under $2,300. That may make all but the most determined consumers say muscle power is enough for me.

Sanyo's electric bike, on display at the Consumer Electronics Show, sports a black battery pack below the seat

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Posted by Mark Boslet

More Signs That LED Lighting Has Arrived

January 11, 2010

Optimistic forecasts have for several months predicted the LED lighting market has final come of age.

Sales will top $5 billion by 2012, crows Strategies Unlimited, and growth will amount to 28 percent annually. The LED chips alone could be $1.7 billion business.

The LED lighting market has attracted both Toshiba and Sharp, which will have products in the market by spring

The real proof comes from vendors willing to risk their time and money – and several big dogs have suddenly entered the kennel.

At the Consumer Electronics Show, both Sharp and Toshiba said they would begin selling LED bulbs and lighting in the U.S. market. For both companies, LED lighting serves as a complement to LED television businesses. With production volumes up, prices fall.

Sharp said it plans to launch products in March, though it declined to discuss pricing and other details. Toshiba also targets January shipments to customers and springtime sales to consumers. But while Sharp suggested pricing would be in line with the current market (LED bulbs are expensive), Toshiba indicated a more aggressive approach.

The company sells LEDs in Japan for the equivalent of $35 to $45, a seemingly attractive price if it carries over to the U.S.

“The market is definitely ready,” says Eddie Temistokle, manager of corporate communications.

Both companies suggest the most immediately market will be businesses, which are less price sensitive than consumers because they can save money on energy bills and on the labor costs of bulb replacement. LEDs last longer than other bulbs.

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Posted by Mark Boslet

Using Sound Waves To Extract Biofuel From Algae

January 11, 2010

Late last year, Solix Biofuels stuck a deal to use sound-wave technology from Los Alamos National Laboratories to turn algae into biofuel.

Sound waves are used to levitate water droplets and separate them from the algae.

Now the technology – which levitates water – is slated for field tests at Solix’s Colorado’s demonstration facility.

The novel approach to algae cultivation should reduce the amount of energy needed to harvest oils from algae grown in an aquatic environment. The oils are processed into biodiesel, gasoline and jet fuel.

Los Alamos’ acoustic levitator aids the procedure by lifting water droplets greater than 1 mm in diameter against the force of gravity. This will enable Solix to separate the algae from the water using less energy.

The two organizations stuck a technology relationship in September. According to the Los Alamos, the technology will be installed this year at Solix’s Coyote Gulch Demonstration Facility near Durango.

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Posted by Mark Boslet

A Solar And Wind Powered Battery Charger Takes Its Time

January 10, 2010

Want to power up two rechargeable double As without paying a penny in electricity?

Try the combination wind and solar recharging station from Taiwan-based Miniwiz. But be prepared to wait.

You’ll pocket money and do your part to save the world from global warming by using the power station, but it won’t be quick. Charging two batteries takes about 24 hours.

Still, the novelty of this item might make patience a virtue. And it could make shelling out the $40 necessary worthwhile.

Taiwan based Miniwiz will sell the charger for $40

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Posted by Mark Boslet

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