Polysilicon solar cells may be more efficient, but they may never be cheap enough to compete with oil.
So claims Tom Tiller, CEO of the solar firm Abound, which produces a competing thin-film cell made with cadmium telluride.
Abound CEO Tim Tiller thinks his company can be cost competitive with the thin film cadmium telluride solar cells of First Solar
Tiller’s claim rests purely with price. The best polysilicon, or crystalline silicon, cells are manufactured at $1.40 a watt today. In four or five years, the cost will fall to $1.05 or $1.06, he projects. At $1 a watt, solar will be able to compete head to head with electricity produced from coal without government subsidies.
That leaves polysilicon high and dry, even though the cells it produces are significantly more efficient at converting sunlight to power than thin film. When it comes to lower costs, “I think it’s unlikely for the technology to do that,” he says.
Tiller, who joined the company in December, expects cadmium telluride will steal the show. He is not alone. GE, long a producer of polysilicon cells, said in March it would begin making cells with cadmium telluride. Already First Solar has carved out a market leading position in solar with the technology.
Not surprisingly, Tiller thinks he can best this industry behemoth. Today, First Solar has a 50 percent cost advantage over polysilicon competitors. “We expect to be cost competitive” with the company, he says, or better.
Abound has a simpler manufacturing technique, with only one processing step compared with First Solar’s six, he says.
Some experts question this view, including Energy Department Secretary Steven Chu. In a speech earlier this year, Chu questioned whether low cost thin-film cells can outsell polysilicon, which today makes up the majority of market. Polysilicon cells keep making gains in efficiency, he pointed out.
What’s clear, however, is that there are big opportunities for low cost producers. Solar sales will grow at a 40 percent annual pace for the next few years, Tiller projects.
