In the Mexican standoff that is the long-standing U.S.-China currency debate, the outcome for the solar industry is difficult to predict.
But one thing is clear. The changing landscape could shift the axis of the solar market over the next year or two as price declines moderate and advanced technology plays a bigger role in buying decisions. With this change as a backdrop, SunPower said Wednesday it successfully built a solar cell with a 24.2 percent market-leading efficiency.
Sunpower says new cell sets record for large wafers. Meanwhile, a rising Chinese currency could change the solar landscape.
The Chinese blinked in the currency debate last Saturday and vowed to permit more market flexibility in the pricing of the renminbi. But after several days of very minor, carefully orchestrated increases, the promise seems to lack short-term monetary firepower.
The most optimistic of analysts predict gradual appreciation in the under-valued Chinese currency over the next several months. The most skeptical observers have begun calling for legislation to combat “currency manipulation” and the artificially low exchange rate.
The implication for clean-tech companies, particularly solar panel makers, is profound. A more expensive Chinese renminbi will raise the cost of what some in the industry consider subsidized, below-market solar panels coming from the country. (Besides being low priced, there are claims some of these panels are low quality as well, failing after a couple years of use.)
In a research note, Wall Street analyst Edwin Mok at Needham said a stronger Chinese currency will result in higher priced panels – or at least a slowing of price declines. This in turn could reduce worldwide demand.
But while Chinese companies might see lower profit margins (or higher losses), companies in the United States and Europe could see benefits. These firms, including SunPower and First Solar, would no longer have to compete with excessively cheap Chinese labor.
In this shifting market place, the race to higher efficiency cells could gain in importance. SunPower said its new cell set a record verified by the National Renewable Energy lab for large silicon wafers.
It did not say when it expects to see 24 percent efficient cells in the market. But the company does seem to be maintaining its lead over rivals, such as JA Solar, with laboratory cells now at 18.5 percent, and Suntech, which is struggling to get its new 19 percent efficient Pluto cells to the market.
