PwC: Venture Capital Industry Not Scalable (video)

February 1, 2011

In 2010, venture capital firms raised $12 billion (down from $16B in 2009) and invested $22 billion (up from $18B). For PricewaterhouseCoopers Steve Bengston, who spoke this morning at SDForum’s Quarterly Venture Breakfast, this is simply not sustainable.

Good News: deals are up

According to the MoneyTree report which tracks venture capital investing, venture capitalists invested $21.8 billion in 3,277 deals in 2010, an increase of 19% in dollars and a 12% rise in deals over the prior year. More here.

“2010 was a kind of a funny year… 3 flat quarters and one outlier which is really more of function of about 3 huge cleantech deals, so it wouldn’t be too much off the mark to say that 2010 was a bunch of $5 billion quarters,” explains Bengston.

Bad News: weak IPO market, lack of funds, no jobs, shrinking VCs, China

“The problem with venture capital is not how much (deals) is coming in, but how much it’s coming out,” says Bengston talking about the lack of IPOs.

Also, 2010 saw the biggest delta between VC investing and VC fund raising ($12B), the lowest since 2004. It’s not scalable!

On jobs, Silicon Valley saw no net job creation in 15 years!

“Here’s a period arguably the greatest period of wealth creation in the history of civilisation and there is no more jobs today than there were 15 years ago,” adds Bengston.

VC industry is shrinking:

“There’s a prominent VC that did their own study that claims that 97% of VC profits come from 15 companies each year. Now let’s say it’s only 90% coming from 30 companies. But it still begs the question: how many VCs do you need to find the 30 really good companies each year. Today the answer is: about 2000; and you might think it’s more than you need.”

On China:

“David Rubinstein, the CEO of Carlyle, was quoted recently saying that China was the #1 economy in 15 of the last 18 centuries. So, just because they had a couple of bad centuries, you don’t want to rule them out. They have a history of success.”

Other highlights of  2010 venture investing:

  • Silicon Valley: 40% of the total VC investments, up from 23% in 1995
  • 30 years ago, Boston was the mecca for venture capital investing
  • Silicon Valley took over Boston about 15 years ago
  • Now, Southern California is emerging as the next big area that might eventually eclipse Boston in a year or 2
  • But no new net creation of jobs in Silicon Valley in the last 15 years
  • About 200 series A deals (~$1 billion invested) per quarter
  • Most of the money has been going in later stages, expansion rounds
  • There were even “N” rounds of investing in 2010!
  • Top active VC: Kleiner Perkins with 79 deals, over a deal/week; then First Round Capital and NEA
  • Intel is the only corporation that has ever made the “Most Active VC” list
  • 72 IPOs in 2010 vs 12 in 2009 or 6 in 2008; timid come back
  • 274 mergers and acquisitions, the biggest since at least ’04; but low valuations
  • Advertising is migrating to the Web and reach 20% of the $600 billion market
  • Asian millionaires exceeds European millionaires

[Video] Stanford: How the Mob is Killing Innovation in Russia

July 29, 2010

[Video] China is Next Silicon Valley, Stanford Professor believes

July 29, 2010

Is China really the next frontier?

Is China really the next Silicon Valley? As much as I respect Steve Blank opinions, I don’t think so.

As Blank pointed it out in his magistral lecture yesterday about “The Past, Present, and Future of Silicon Valley” at the AlwaysOn Summit at Stanford, the problem for all the other Silicon Valley wannabes is first and foremost, the lack of a risk taking culture. “Silicon Valley was done by cowboys, not accountants. And even the investors were cowboys,” Blank adds.

But, in fairness, the lack of risk-taking doesn’t really apply to China, where “capitalism has gone wild.”

But there’s more than just a strong – but controlled – capitalism spirit, an “obscene pile of money,” a successful “manufacturing engine,” and the ability to educate the masses to spur innovation, Silicon Valley-style.

The missing ingredient? I believe Freedom – political, spiritual… – is as important to create this sense of purpose, compassion and community which could nicely be summarized by this Silicon Valley belief that “the sky is the limit.” Not the case in China today.


[Video] Interview: Arianna Huffington on the Media, U.S. Economy, Afghanistan And More

February 26, 2010

Arianna Huffington covers a wide range of issues at an event hosted by the Churchill Club of Silicon Valley

What a captivating event last night at the Churchill Club with Arianna Huffington, the co-founder and editor-in-chief of The Huffington Post, in conversation with Rich Karlgaard, Forbes Magazine‘s publisher.

This was really the first time I sat down and listened to Huffington, who talked about issues ranging from politics, new media and blogging, the U.S. economy, the war in terror and more.

Follows are video snippets of the most inspiring parts of this intelligent and imaginative salon conversation.

Read the rest of this entry »


Larry Ellison On The Econony: U.S. Consumers Broke; No Recovery Ahead

October 6, 2009
Oracle chief wants to impose tariffs on goods originating from China and India

Oracle chief wants to impose tariffs on goods originating from China and India

The Oracle co-founder and CEO Larry Ellison has a dismal view on the future of the U.S. economy and sees no recovery in sight.

“Somebody said it’s going to be an L-shaped recovery: down, not coming back. I believe that,” said the software executive.

Ellison argues that the U.S. consumer is so deeply in debt that the economy will not come back at least before 5-years; during which the U.S. economy will not be the world’s engine of growth as used to be, while U.S. consumers start saving to pay off their debts.

The Oracle CEO also expects a higher tax regime to pay for some of the Obama’s administration initiatives.

“I’m surprised that there are so many huge spending programmes, like the stimulus package ($800 billion), the health-care bill ($1 trillion), cap and trade ($1 billion)… There are a lot of things that is going on right now that make me believe that we’re not going to have a rapid recovery,” adds Ellison.

Follows, is the video excerpt of Larry Ellison on the state of the economy:

Oracle CEO favours tariffs on imported goods from India and China

Ellison also explained that the U.S. should impose tariffs on imported goods along with its decision to adopt the cap and trade programme.

“Because you can’t suddenly say that energy is going to be very expensive in the U.S. which would send manufacturing overseas and without having tariffs on things coming back to the U.S. for countries like India and China who said very clearly that they have no interest in monitoring their CO2 output until they have the same per capita CO2 output as the U.S… As a results, China will be able to increase their CO2 output by a factor of 4,” adds Ellison.

Follows another video excerpt where the Oracle CEO talks about imposing tariffs on goods coming from India and China:


Churchill Club Top Trend: Why D.C. Is A Bad VC

May 21, 2009

Churchill Club’s Top Tech Trends: Millennium Generation, Energy, Mobile And The Next Web

May 20, 2009
This years top tech trends include the millennium generation, cleantech, mobile applications and the web.

This year's top tech trends include the millennium generation, cleantech, mobile applications and the web.

It was a full crowd tonight for the Churchill Club’s 11th annual Top 10 Tech Trends event; maybe because there were actually 12 trends!

This year’s high-powered panel included:

  1. Steve Jurvetson, Managing Director, Draper Fisher Jurvetson
  2. Vinod Khosla, Founder, Khosla Ventures
  3. Joe Schoendorf, Partner, Accel Partners
  4. Ram Shriram, Managing Partner, Sherpalo Ventures, LLC
  5. Ann Winblad, Partner, Hummer Winblad Venture Partners

The event was moderated by Silicon Valley celebrity Tony Perkins, founder of AlwaysOn and Jason Pontin now editor in chief and publisher at the MIT Technology Review magazine. Both were at the helm of the Red Herring magazine during the go-go days!

New this year was the inclusion of 5 trends picked from “crowd sourcing”, scouring the Web and the media for the most discussed and popular trends.

Perkins and Pontin also had the opportunity to pick their favorite trend.

Here’s the list of all the trends discussed.

  1. The Millennials Are Here. Everything is changing rapidly – Joe Schoendorf
  2. The unstructured data deluge creates the next great information leaders – Ann Winblad
  3. “Maintech” not “Cleantech” – Vinod Khosla
  4. The triumph of the distributed Web – Steve Jurvetson
  5. Consumption of digital goods on mobile devices is THE growth story of the coming decade -Ram Shriram
  6. DC will prove to be a poor VC –  Tony Perkins
  7. The rumors of the demise of the reporter have been exaggerated – Jason Pontin
  8. Advanced batteries will be the most popular alternative energy investment in 2009-10 – Crowd idea
  9. Wireless broadband that will one of the only IT sectors to see increased funding this year – Crowd idea
  10. Power and efficiency management services will see a flowering of investment and innovation – Crowd idea
  11. Healthcare administration will see the best growth in B2B software in 2009-10 – Crowd idea
  12. Electronic displays will prove the hottest investment in hardware this year and the next- Crowd idea

More in later posts with videos and additional commentaries. Meanwhile here’s the video excerpt introducing tonight’s event:


EDS Acquisition Saves H-P Quarterly Results; But Profit Still Drops Sharply, Sparks More Layoffs

May 19, 2009
Without EDS, H-P financial quaterly results would have been dismal

Without EDS, H-P financial quaterly results would have been dismal

[Update] H-P said it will trim 2 percent of its 321,000 employees this year or 6,400 jobs, in addition to the already announced cuts associated with the EDS acquisition. Most the firing will happen outside the U.S. confirmed the Palo Alto, Calif.-company.

The recession is hitting H-P right at its core.

The Palo Alto, Calif.-company saw a revenue and profit decline in all of its businesses – aside of the Services division (more on that later) – including, PCs, servers, printers, software and financial services.

Even H-P’s golden egg, its Imaging and Printing Group (IPG), recorded a double digit decline in revenue (-23%), to $5.9 billion, from the same period a year ago.

On the other hand, H-P’s Services division recorded a whopping 99% increase in revenue to $8.5 billion, and an amazing 130% surge in profits, to $1.2 billion!

But the comparison is obviously flawed as H-P closed the EDS acquisition only last August and did not include EDS financial results until then.

Although H-P’s short-term outlook is still sombre, with revenue flat to down 2% sequentially, the world’s largest IT company still sees only a modest revenue drop for the year, at about 4% to 5%.


Judy Estrin: Risk Adversed Investors, Short Term Greed, Fear Of Failure, Are Stifling Innovation

May 14, 2009
To spur innovation, book author and entrepreneur Judy Estrin suggests an overhaul of the U.S. education system, more research and academia investing and the return of risk taking

To spur innovation, book author and entrepreneur Judy Estrin suggests an overhaul of the U.S. education system, more research and academia investing and the return of risk taking

Is innovation really slowing down in Silicon Valley?

I caught up this morning with serial entrepreneur Judy Estrin (former Cisco CTO) who was giving a talk at the Computer History Museum on innovation (or the lack thereof); most of it based on her book Closing the Innovation Gap.

Estrin argued that what is stiffling innovation are risk adversed venture capitalists and overall short term greed, especially since the Internet bubble in the late 90s.

“I’m not saying that there is no innovation going on. But that the innovation support structure in the country has become much more short term focus and not as deep and broad as before. Meaning that the opportunities that I had to build my career don’t exist anymore,” said Estrin.

Silicon Valley is still the world’s innovation hotbed

Although Silicon Valley is a much richer environment than anywhere else in the country or certainly any place in the world, that’s not good enough, points Estrin who sees 2 main culprits for the decline in innovation:

  1. the risk adverse investors in Silicon Valley. Failure is a critical part of innovation. You have to be able to try things even if you don’t know the outcome. You also inspire innovation when you turn threats into challenges and not fear;
  2. and the short term view of both investors and entrepreneurs who want to strike it big and quick. One of Estrin’s core values is patience and tenacity. You need to give time to an idea to develop

“It went from the passion of building a company and changing the world to how much can we make in 2-years. The dynamics have shifted,” adds Estrin who recalled a venture capitalist telling her to come back with several customers before he invests in her start-up.

Here are Estrin’s 5 core values behind innovation: questioning (both yourself and others without being judgmental and the tone matters), risk, openness (sharing, collaboration), patience (tenacity) and trust.

Cleantech and Healthcare are the 2 huge opportunities of this downturn

Estrin also argues that dramatic innovation is needed to help repay the massive deficit and to create the millions of jobs lost.

“Normal growth will not solve those 2 key problems because the companies that laid-off will not rehire the employees. So the only way to solve it is through dramatic innovation that will create new industries,” adds Estrin.

For the 7th-time entrepreneur, energy and environment (cleantech) and healthcare (medicine, wellness, care of elderness…) could be the answer. “A crisis is a terrible thing to waste,” jokes Estrin.

More government investments, corporate incentives will foster innovation

The tech celebrity also suggested that new government policies on immigration and investment in academia (not bailout) and incentivize venture capitalists and corporations to take more risks will boost innovation.

Estrin also suggested investors to measure a company’s CFC (capacity for change) – in addition to its EPS (earnings per share) – and place a value on this ability to invest in innovation.


IT Projects On Hold But Not Eliminated Entirely

May 14, 2009

Here’s some good news for the rebound, whenever it comes.

Hardware spending is being hit harder than other areas of IT

Hardware spending is being hit harder than other areas of IT

According to Gartner, more far more corporate technology buyers are delaying computing projects than canceling them. Only 12 percent of companies surveyed in February and March have outright eliminated a project.

What that suggests is many of the projects will be dusted off and carried forward when corporate money begins flowing again.

The survey found that spending on hardware will be hardest hit. Gartner projects overall IT spending will decline 3.7 percent this year, before rebounding 2.4 percent next year.

Hardware spending nonetheless will fall 14.9 percent in 2009, much worse than the IT market in general. Even next year, hardware – including purchases of PCs, servers and storage – will lag, growing just 0.8 percent.

Of course, conditions will vary greatly around the world. Projects in India and China are much more likely to go forward this year and projects in the U.S. and Europe.


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