Tough Times Continue For Solar Industry

April 17, 2009

Solar prices are down and utilities can’t get the financing to build large-scale solar installations.

A change in Spainish tariffs have slowed the market

A change in Spainish tariffs have slowed the market

Times have never been tougher. Solar-cell producers have responded by reining in growth projections and cutting production.

One big reason for the industry’s turn of fortune is the Spanish market. Spain soaked up about 50 percent of worldwide solar demand in 2008. But a change in tariffs has slowed the market.

As a result, there is excess inventory – despite better incentives in the U.S. and Japan. France and Italy also have attractive investment climates.

ISuppli on Friday offered a projection for the troubled market. It estimated the average price per solar watt will fall 12 percent this year and revenue generated by photovoltaic systems will fall 40 percent to $18.2 billion.

That’s a sharp contrast to the $30.5 billion in 2008.

That means globally the industry will install 3.5 gigawatts in 2009 compared with 5.3 GW last year. That’s a 32 percent decline.

The number of new suppliers will fall and the addition of new production capacity will slow, says Senior director Henning Wicht. It will be a little like the PC market shakeout of the mid 1980s, when the industry excess disappeared.

The question is whether this will lead to a more stable and mature market in the years to come. Don’t count on it.

Photovoltaic projections from iSuppli

Photovoltaic projections from iSuppli

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Posted by Mark Boslet

Israeli VCs Also See Pain As Downturn Sharply Lowers Fundraising

April 8, 2009

Israel is an active place for entrepreneurs. But if venture-capital fundraising is an indication, the pace of building new companies will slow.

Projections say funds in Israel will raise only $300 million this year

Projections say funds in Israel will raise only $300 million this year

Venture funds in Israel raised just $793 million in 2008, down 30 percent from a year earlier when $1.14 billion went to firms in the country.

Estimates are for another sharp drop this year. Projections show only $300 million will be raised because of the economic climate.

VCs still have $1 billion to put into new companies. The question is what will happen when this runs out. Firms may choose to keep a tight grip on their money until signs of an upswing appear.

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Posted by Mark Boslet

Coach Potatoes Now View Laptops As They Watch TV

March 9, 2009

New living room habits are changing the way people watch television: today’s coach potato frequently balances a computer on his or her lap.

More than 66 million consumers camp out on the sofa with laptops

More than 66 million consumers camp out on the sofa with laptops

According to In-Stat, more than 66 million U.S. consumer curl up with laptops as the camp out on the sofa watching the tube.

The trend is most common among men. A recent survey found between 40 percent and 50 percent of some male age groups use laptops while watching TV, In-Stat reported on Monday.

About 30 percent of women under 40 years old also navigate a PC while viewing TV.

This emerging trend presents cable operators and other broadcast outlets with new opportunities to synchronized programming with Web content – especially since it represents little in the way of new costs, said analyst Gerry Kaufhold.

However, before operators count their chickens, the downturn is expected to trim $5 billion from consumer spending on broadband, pay television services and mobile services, In-Stat says.

About 15 percent of consumers plan to cut back during the next 12 months. This will be most common among households with incomes below $35,000.

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Posted by Mark Boslet

Smart Phones Are A Bright Spot In A Dull Year

March 4, 2009

Mobile handset sales will plunge 10 percent or more this year, but smart phones, like Apple’s iPhone, will prosper.

Bucking the magnetic effect of the downturn, smart phone sales measured by units are expected to rise as much as 11 percent, says iSuppli.

For growth to reach this level, network operators must cut fees for data services and offer aggressive reductions in phone prices, said Tina Teng, a senior analyst.

If they don’t, and if consumer confidence continues to erode, then sales would rise 6 percent.

In any event, between 183.9 million and 192.3 million units will ship in the year, says iSuppli. That would represent between 16.6 percent and 17.4 percent of the overall market.

Growth could increase in 2010.

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Posted by Mark Boslet

Chip Market Will Not Recover Fully Until 2012, Analyst Says

February 23, 2009

The semiconductor market has a long road to ahead.

Manufacturing capacity will fall during the downturn

Manufacturing capacity will fall during the downturn

So says In-Stat analyst Jim McGregor, who on Monday projected it will be 2012 before the industry returns to 2007 sales levels.

McGregor’s report offers a mix of good and bad news. On the negative front, sales for the chip business should fall almost 20 percent this year, a deeper decline than the 5.6 percent the generally more upbeat Semiconductor Industry Association predicted in November.

However, he notes the recovery is expected to start in the second half of the year and continue into 201, when growth will be 11.8 percent.

Despite the modest rebound, the decline will be steep enough and long enough to reduce the amount of available manufacturing capacity through mergers, restructurings and failings – an unusual turn of events.

Manufacturing capacity peaked at 90 percent utilization in early 2008.

Revenue from DSPs, or digital signal processors, declined by 14.9 percent last year to its lowest level since 2003, said In-Stat.

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Posted by Mark Boslet

H-P Gets Hit Hard By Downturn; Revenue To Decline This Year

February 18, 2009

Hewlett-Packard was able to sidestep the worst of the economic downturn in November when it reported fourth-quarter results.

This was in part because its quarter closed in October, well before the financial markets imploded.

We dont want to bank on the economy getting better, says Mark Hurd

We don't want to bank on the economy getting better, says Mark Hurd

The invisibility cloak no longer works. The company reported first-quarter results on Wednesday with a sharp change of fortune. Sales of personal computers, printers, servers and software fell sharply, with PC revenue tumbling 19 percent.

Even sales of critical printing supplies (they supply a big share of H-P’s profits) sank 7 percent.

“The slowdown in IT spending was global,” CEO Mark Hurd said on a conference call with analysts. “We don’t want to bank on the fact the economy is going to get better.”

That pessimism led the Silicon Valley tech giant to predict revenue will fall 2 to 5 percent this year as customers delay purchasing equipment and re-evaluate their budgets.

The weakness was particularly noticeable in the emerging markets of China, India, Brazil and Russia, where quarterly revenue was down 22 percent.

Overall, the quarter saw notebook sales drop 13 percent and sales of low-cost servers running chips from Intel and Advanced Micro Devices plunge 22 percent.

So when will the key supplies segment turn around? There is a correlation between GDP growth and printing volume, said Hurd.

When unemployment is high, less printing takes place, he said. “(It) won’t turn around until the economy starts to turn around,” added CFO Cathie Lesjak.

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Posted by Mark Boslet

Motorola Favors Android Over Windows Mobile In 2009

February 4, 2009

Motorola has had a difficult time of it.

In the fourth quarter, its handset sales plunged 53 percent as the popular iPhone from Apple and the new Blackberries turned consumers away from its aging product line and its last big hit, the Razr.

Windows Mobile 7 may change the competitive landscape

Windows Mobile 7 may change the competitive landscape

Now it is eager to get back on the playing field and is promising a revitalized family of products to hit the market in the fourth quarter and the first half of 2010.

“Consumers are migrating toward devices that increasingly involve data subscriptions,” says Sanjay Jha, co-CEO.

So what operating system will the new products run? Motorola says many will use the Android smart-phone software from Google instead of Windows Mobile 6 from Microsoft. “We believe in 2009, Android is more competitive,” says Jha.

“But in 2010 when Windows (Mobile) 7 becomes available, we will participate more,” he said.

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Posted by Mark Boslet

Broadband Sign-Ups To Grow In 2009 Despite Economy

February 4, 2009

The number of broadband subscribers should continue to grow this year, despite the pullback in consumer spending that has hit retail, computer and cell phone sales.

DSL to see most of the growth

DSL to see most of the growth

Subscriber growth should amount to 7 percent each year through 2014, said ABI Research.

Connections using DSL are likely to see the lion’s share of the growth as telecommunications carriers piggyback the data flow on their existing infrastructures to keep prices stable and affordable.

But DSL is starting to meet with saturation in some developed markets as consumers begin to favor faster options using optical fiber cable. In the advanced markets of Denmark, South Korea and Japan, DSL is seeing a decline in growth rates, ABI said.

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Posted by Mark Boslet

Network Switch Market To See Biggest Decline Since 2001

February 4, 2009

The market for Ethernet switches is forecast to shrink nearly 10 percent this year, according to the Dell’Oro Group.

Customers looking for lower prices

Customers looking for lower prices

The drop will be the biggest since the dot-com crash upended sales in 2001.

Economic conditions have worsened rapidly and customers have shifted their focus. Instead of seeking more features for the same price or a small premium, customers are trying to get the same features and functions for a lower price, said Dell’Oro Director Alan Weckel.

In addition, the market opportunities that propelled sales in 2008 are disappearing or moderating, including sales in emerging markets, on-campus upgrades and data-center consolidation.

Dell’Oro says growth may occur among the new generation of 10 Gigabit Ethernet switches as products come to market. But sales of 1000 Mbps switches should decline.

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Posted by Mark Boslet

Sales Of Broadband Access Equipment Forecast to Drop Despite Stimulus

February 3, 2009

The market for network access equipment that telecommunications and cable companies use for broadband connections will fall in 2009, according to a forecast.

Access concentrator sales will be under pressure in 2009

Access concentrator sales will be under pressure in 2009

The Dell’Oro Group says that sale of access infrastructure such as cable, DSL and PON concentrators (passive optic network links to optical fiber) will tumble nearly 15 percent during the year to $4 billion.

A slump in new subscribers and the weak economy will slow network building and upgrades, the research firm says. President Barack Obama has included broadband build-out money in his stimulus strategy and legislators have added funds to the rescue packages making their way through Congress.

“We believe that operators will not change their network upgrade strategies, although we expect them to be more cautious with expenditures,” said founder Tam Dell’Oro.

Growth will return to the market in 2010 through 2013.

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Posted by Mark Boslet

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