Dire Outlook For 2009: PC Sales To Fall 5% And Cell Phones To Tumble 9%

December 1, 2008

The Semiconductor Industry Association reported Monday that chip sales took a devastating 2.4 percent drop in October from a year earlier.

Then the trade group offered an even more dire outlook for next year. It projected personal computer shipments would sink 5 percent and cell phone shipments would tumble 9 percent due to the economic downturn.

The outlook from the normally ebullient SIA is among the most severe for the year ahead. “The worldwide financial turmoil is expected to continue to impact demand for semiconductors as we enter 2009,” said President George Scalise. “PCs and cell phones account for approximately 60 percent of total demand for semiconductors.”

The SIA said sales of memory chips fell especially hard in October. Sales of NAND flash chips, used in music players and digital cameras, plummeted 41 percent while sales of DRAM chips used in computers decreased 14 percent.

Excluding memory, semiconductor sales were up 3.8 percent in October 2007, but down from September of this year. The chip industry employs more than 200,000 people in the U.S.

October chip sales fall

October chip sales fall


Downturn Lowers Forecast For Mobile Phone Sales (But Third-Quarter Numbers Were Strong With Market Up 8.2%)

October 30, 2008
The new touchscreen Blackberry Storm from RIM

The new touchscreen Blackberry Storm from RIM

ABI Research lowered it fourth-quarter forecast for mobile handset sales growth to 7.5 percent from a previous target of 10.4 percent.

The question in my mind is whether the revision is low enough – despite the many new smart-phone introductions from Nokia, Research In Motion and T-Mobile. Consumers are on tight budgets, as recent financial reports from high-tech vendors have shown.

Expect to see aggressive marketing and promotions to lure upgrades, the firm says.

What’s more, third-quarter results were relatively strong, with growth of 8.2 percent, ABI said. During the quarter, Nokia, Motorola and LG lost share while Samsung, Apple and RIM gained. SonyEricsson held steady.


Nokia Schedules Thursday Event Where iPhone Killer Is Expected

October 1, 2008
Nokia Wants To Catch Up

Nokia Wants To Catch Up

Nokia confirmed Wednesday that it has scheduled a product announcement Thursday where it is expected to unveil its widely anticipated iPhone-killer.

The “Tube” touch-screen smart phone is sure to grab major headlines coming a week before a similarly important introduction from Research In Motion – the new Bold cell phone.

Tube will be targeted at Apple’s iPhone and Samsung’s Instinct, said Jamie Townsend, an analyst at JRPG Research.

However, the product will probably only ship in Europe this year and not reach the U.S. until 2009. It is unclear whether Nokia has a carrier deal to announce in the states. But it is certain to promote the music-download capabilities of the device, which could come with a free 1-year subscription to its music site.

Nokia’s event in London is planned for 12:30 p.m. East Coast time.


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