Silicon Valley Unemployment Rises To 9.4%

March 6, 2009

The Silicon Valley unemployment rate rose to 9.4 percent in January as tech companies shed workers to cut costs.

The daunting figure, released Thursday, is still less than California as a whole, which saw unemployment rise to 10.1 percent.

But it underscores the rapid decline in the area economy since late last year.

According to California’s Employment Development Department, the valley shed 86,900 jobs in the months, with Santa Clara County, the heart of Silicon Valley, losing 83,000 jobs in the month and reached an unemployment rate of 9.3 percent.

San Mateo County to the north had unemployment of 7.2 percent while San Francisco’s unemployment was 8 percent.

Los Angeles unemployment was 10.8 percent.


Google Wants Users To Rank Money Saving Tips In Digg-Like Fashion

March 5, 2009

Digg lets user rank news stories. Google wants you to rank tips for saving money – quite timely given the lengthy recession we are likely to experience.

Tip Jar has already accumulated more than 12,000 votes

Tip Jar has already accumulated more than 12,000 votes

The Internet search giant launched Tip Jar, a Digg-like site that lets people post their money saving tips and then vote on the ones they think are most useful (or simply more ridiculous).

Already 1.027 tips have been posted and 12,610 votes cast.

The suggestions so far are semi-useful. But what’s interesting is once again Google’s willingness to try new things to see how they work – despite the poor acceptance many Digg copycats.

According to a blog post from Google Software Engineer Colby Ranger, Google puts “a lot of stock in both the wisdom of crowds…and the value of community.”

Tip Jar gathers ideas of saving money in one place and over time the best ones will rise to the top, writes Ranger.

The site makes use of Google Moderator, a software tool that allows people to have a say on a question or topic.


Palm Needs More Money

March 3, 2009

Troubled times for the former leader of the smart-phone industry continue.

Palm’s new Pre receives accolades, but isn’t scheduled to ship until closer to June (the official target is the first half of the year).

Palm Pre to reach the market by June, but current smart phone sales are slumping

In anticipation, the company’s present smart phones are tanking and the stopgap Treo Pro is late. That means Palm is burning money to stay alive: between $95 million and $100 million in the third quarter ended Feb. 27.

That will leave it will between $215 million and $220 million in the bank, not enough of a cushion to satisfy management.

On Tuesday, Palm said it would raise more money to conduct the Pre launch and weather the downturn. It also said third-quarter sales were roughly three-fifths of what they were expected to be: between $85 million and $90 million compared with the $157.8 million Wall Street had projected.

In this environment, the options aren’t plentiful. Here’s the plan: to exercise some of the shares underlying the Series C preferred stock owned by Elevation Partners.
In other words: convert up to 49 percent the Series C convertible preferred warrants Elevation received for a $100 million investment into common stock and sell them on the market. If they sold at $7, Palm would raise $67.5 million. (Thanks to Barron’s Tech Trader Daily for the details.)

“As expected, we’ve got a difficult transition period to work through,” said Palm CEO Ed Colligan.


Google CEO Sees Big Opportunity In Display Ads And Mobile Search

March 3, 2009

Google CEO Eric Schmidt gave no indication when, but said display advertising is likely to become one of the company’s next big growth stories.

Google management spends most of its time in business reviews, says Eric Schmidt

Google management spends most of its time in business reviews, says Eric Schmidt

“We’re in the process of building an ad exchange” that will “apply the Google magic” to placing display advertising online, he said. The exchange is the byproduct of the company’s 2008 acquisition of DoubleClick, and hopes to solve the difficulties of delivering the right ad to the right Web page.

The future of display advertising lies not with traditional banner ads but with ads that tell stories, using complex content such as video, Schmidt said at the Morgan Stanley Technology Conference.

The future also will bring a point where mobile search revenue exceeds PC-based search revenue, he said. When that occurs depends on the growth of data-enabled mobile devices, and is likely in “a few years, but not a few decades,” Schmidt said.

With the world in the grip of a worsening downturn, “Google management spends most of its time doing business reviews” to decide which of its products has greatest potential, he said.

One product worth mentioning is Google Apps for business. “We’ve been pleased with the willingness of customers to accelerate their trials” of the online service, Schmidt said.

Perhaps that is because it is cheaper, he noted.


Chip Sales Nose Dive 28.6% In January

March 2, 2009

The semiconductor market continued its rapid collapse in January, falling 28.6 percent from a year ago.

World chip revenue (source: Semiconductor Industry Association) (Red line is percentage change)

World chip revenue (source: Semiconductor Industry Association) (Red line is percentage change)

Sales were $21.5 billion, representing an 11.9 percent decline from the depressed levels in December 2008, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association.

The weakening occurred in every region of the world, with sharp declines in Asia/Pacific and Japan.

The one positive observation is that inventory levels are low, meaning that manufacturers may need to replenish their stocks soon, said SIA President George Scalise.


Intel Seeing A Pattern Of Buying Re-Emerge, Says Paul Otellini

February 25, 2009

It is too early to say the personal computer industry has hit a bottom.

But computer manufacturers are placing orders again to restock depleted inventories to meet demand for their products.

This downturn is different, says Paul Otellini

This downturn is different, says Paul Otellini

“You’re starting to see a pattern of purchases emerge again,” Intel CEO Paul Otellini said on Wednesday.

Speaking at the Goldman Sachs Technology and Internet Conference in San Francisco, Otellini said the current downturn is different than others he has weathered. For one, inventories across the industry are low.

Downturns usually saddle manufacturers with piles of finished goods and components as factories grind to a halt and shelves remain stocked with parts ordered weeks and months ago.

This time, inventory systems are “dramatically different,” Otellini said. “The industry didn’t build up a lot of inventory. People were very cautious.”

Asked whether the economy could recover by the end of the year, he said, “It’s hard to imagine it’s worse. I think you have seen the global shock and people will start to work out of it.”


Mirroring Handset Sales, Mobile Display Market Won’t Recover Until 2011

February 25, 2009

Last month, Nokia projected mobile handset sales would fall 10 percent this year.

Displays for these units are following step, projected to fall 6.2 percent in 2009 and remain largely unchanged (up 0.3 percent) in 2010, says iSuppli.

Prices declines for displays was slow

Prices declines for displays was slow

The market won’t surpass 2008 volumes until 2011, says the research firm.

The business was already suffering from falling prices in 2008 before the sharply slowing economy and a build up for finished phone inventories cut sales volumes and added to its problems.

Display shipments at some suppliers fell by more than 40 percent in the fourth quarter.

Despite production cuts by some suppliers, prices should fall 15 percent to 20 percent in 2009, though perhaps not as much as in 2008, iSuppli says.


Solar Market Battered By Oversupply And Tight Credit

February 24, 2009

The solar industry is being battered by falling prices and tight credit.

First Solar is ready to cut prices and extend pament terms

First Solar is ready to cut prices and extend payment terms

Oversupply is trimming solar-cell prices at the same time as utilities can’t find bank financing to build large-scale solar farms, said First Solar CEO Michael Ahearn.

“The short-term outlook has never looked more difficult,” he said Tuesday on an earnings conference call. “We regard oversupply as a risk we need to monitor closely.”

Ahearn’s downbeat assessment of the industry came as he projected first-quarter sales at his company would fall from the fourth quarter or remain unchanged. First Solar’s fourth-quarter sales rose 24 percent sequentially.

The company’s dramatic change of fortune can only partly be blamed on the downturn, Ahearn said. The fourth quarter saw a surge of excess supply and lower prices as a result, he said.

While some manufacturers are showing signs they will curtail production, the situation is serious enough that Ahearn said First Solar will consider lowering prices to high-volume customers.

The company also decided to extend customer payment terms from 10 to 45 days as it increases production at its Malaysian plant.

The stimulus bill signed by the Obama Administration will expand the retail solar market in the U.S., but won’t have an immediate impact on large-scale utility projects, he said. These projects take years to plan and will more likely benefit from flexible vendor financing, he said.

Bank lending marginally improved in the first quarter, but “the global banking systems remains fragile,” Ahearn added.

First Solar announced that it is now capable of producing solar cells at a cost of 98 cents a watt, a goal it had been chasing for seven years. Ahearn sees manufacturing costs dropping as low as 65 cents a watt by 2012, raising the competitiveness of the cells.


Chip Market Will Not Recover Fully Until 2012, Analyst Says

February 23, 2009

The semiconductor market has a long road to ahead.

Manufacturing capacity will fall during the downturn

Manufacturing capacity will fall during the downturn

So says In-Stat analyst Jim McGregor, who on Monday projected it will be 2012 before the industry returns to 2007 sales levels.

McGregor’s report offers a mix of good and bad news. On the negative front, sales for the chip business should fall almost 20 percent this year, a deeper decline than the 5.6 percent the generally more upbeat Semiconductor Industry Association predicted in November.

However, he notes the recovery is expected to start in the second half of the year and continue into 201, when growth will be 11.8 percent.

Despite the modest rebound, the decline will be steep enough and long enough to reduce the amount of available manufacturing capacity through mergers, restructurings and failings – an unusual turn of events.

Manufacturing capacity peaked at 90 percent utilization in early 2008.

Revenue from DSPs, or digital signal processors, declined by 14.9 percent last year to its lowest level since 2003, said In-Stat.


With 40% Of Global Wealth Gone, Do Not Expect A Quick End To The Downturn

February 19, 2009

This is a balance-sheet downturn, quips Stanford law professor Joseph Grundfest.

This is a balance sheet contraction, says Joseph Grundfest

This is a balance sheet contraction, says Joseph Grundfest

Bank assets are marked down, stocks crashed and home values have fallen.  In the past two years, 40 percent of the world’s wealth disappeared, Grundfest calculates.

“The problem is bigger than government,” he said Thursday at a Churchill Club gathering on the financial crisis. “We shouldn’t fool ourselves into believing (government spending) is going to lead to a vibrant economy in three years.”

If there was one message from the club’s panel discussion it was exactly that: don’t expect a quick turn around. Several panelists predicted the global decline that accelerated in December would last for years.

“This is a drastic resetting of everything,” said Patricia Sueltz, CEO of the startup LogLogic and a former Salesforce.com executive. “We’ve got to lower our expectations.”

There is a drastic resetting of everything, says Patricia Sueltz

There is a drastic resetting of everything, says Patricia Sueltz

While governments in the U.S. and elsewhere hope to spark consumer and business spending with stimulus packages, adjusting product prices will take the market place time.

It is not irrational that banks don’t want to lend into such as environment, says Grundfest. They respond, this “is not in our self interest,” he said.

Bill Coleman, CEO of Cassatt and founder of BEA Systems, predicted that it is possible the U.S. can avoid double-digit unemployment.

But he said the Dow Jones Industrial Average may not stabilize for another couple months at a price not lower than 6,000.


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