Sure, we all know how difficult a year 2009 was. Solar module prices fell a startling 40 percent (after several years of increases) and demand evaporated in the global downturn.
Projections call for a better 2010, though decisions in Germany over how much to cut its feed-in tariff could spoil the party.
The solar market should expand 30 percent in 2010 as measured by installed watts, says DuPont
Perhaps the most reassuring news for solar cell manufacturers is that price declines should be more moderate. When prices fell sharply last year, profit margins slumped with them. Slower declines could strengthen this important gauge of corporate health.
According to DuPont, solar module prices should fall 10 percent this year as the market, measured by installed watts, climbs 30 percent.
The rebound will be led by demand in China, France and the United States (not Germany), says Sung Lee, global marketing director at DuPont Photovoltaic Solutions.
The 30 percent annual growth should continue for several years, Lee said Thursday at the Strategic Materials Conference at Half Moon Bay, California.
Meanwhile, cell efficiency will continue to improve. Efficiencies of 17 percent to 21 percent are expected through 2012 (compared with low teens today). A target of 22 percent will be reached after 2012 as new materials find their way into production lines, Lee says.
However, the cost of supplying the industry with materials will be significant. By 2020, solar factories should have the capacity to produce 100 GW of cells a year – two thirds of the 150 GW of new energy demand – making solar a major source of electricity generation.
But supplying materials to the industry will require companies, such as DuPont, to invest $80 billion in new plants. It is hard to know where that capital will come from, says Lee.
It will likely be a market for big players.
Posted by Mark Boslet 
