Corporate Technology Spending To Be Unchanged In 2009

January 14, 2009

Business spending on information technology in 2009 will be essentially unchanged from 2008, Gartner found in a survey of international executives.

The research firm interviewed 1,527 chief technology officers in 48 countries and 30 industries during the past four months.

Flat IT budgets were found in North America and Europe with slight increases in Latin America and slight decreases in the Asia Pacific region, the firm said.

The firm said CIOs face global economic conditions that have not existed for 50 years. But if budgets remain on target (up 0.16 percent for the year) the news for technology companies could be far worse. Maintaining spending it better than cutting it.

Here are the details of the study: one third of CIOs reported no change in their budget from 2008, while 46 percent reported a slight increase, and 21 percent reported a cut in IT budgets.

Here are some investment priorities from the executives:

*Invest in business intelligence applications;
*Invest in ERP, or core enterprise resources business software for general ledger, financial and operational tasks;
*Invest in servers and storage to meet growing demand.


Chip Maker Linear Says It Hasn’t Seen The Market’s Bottom

January 13, 2009

Linear Technology said Tuesday that stabilization hasn’t yet come to the semiconductor industry

It is difficult to forecast stabilization and recovery, says CEO Lothar Maier

It is difficult to forecast stabilization and recovery, says CEO Lothar Maier

“Looking ahead to the March quarter, we believe we have not yet seen the bottom from the economic fallout of the global credit crisis,” CEO Lothar Maier said as he reported the company’s second-quarter results. “Our bookings continue to be weak in the early part of this quarter,”

Linear, which makes a broad array of chips for computers, cellular phones, automobiles and networking products, said demand weakened steadily through its second quarter. The company responded by cutting costs, planning weekly plant closings and laying off 100 employees.

It also repurchased outstanding debt at depressed prices.

“At this time it is difficult to forecast when we will see some stabilization and subsequent recovery,” Maier said. The company anticipates third-quarter revenue will be down 15 percent to 20 percent from the second quarter.

To meet this target, product bookings in February and March will have to best those in December and January, the company said.


Chip Market Falls Off Cliff In November; Sales Off 9.8%

January 2, 2009

Semiconductor sales saw a worldwide plunge of 9.8 percent in November as the economic downturn intensified.

Chip sales plunge

Chip sales plunge

The Semiconductor Industry Association said sales for the month came to $20.8 billion, down from $23.1 billion a year ago.

If memory products such as DRAMs and NAND flash are excluded, the decline is a softer 4.8 percent – illustrating the slowdown in these volatile markets.

The memory market has been under severe price pressure all year, the SIA said. Semiconductors are still expected to be the second largest U.S. export product.

The largest November decline came in the American market, followed by Europe and Japan.


Analyst Sees Possibility Of Rebound In Semiconductor Market In Second Half Of 2009

December 24, 2008

Advising investors to build positions in semiconductor stocks, American Technology analyst Doug Freedman said he saw the possibility of a “snap-back” in revenue growth in the second half of next year.

Track of Intel shares since August

Trading in Intel shares since August

In a note released Wednesday, Freedman said the slowing in the chip market seemed to be due to a “supply-chain oscillation,” as manufacturers and distributors reduced their inventories of chips in anticipation of lower demand.

“The potential for simultaneous inventory replenishment and return of demand could provide a steep ‘double-whammy’ snap-back,” he wrote.

There is the possibility of a long, deep recovery – though the bad news could continue from the industry in early 2009, he said. “We continue to look for incrementally better data points that could provide signs of the magnitude of the snap back.”


Tibco Shows That Not All Software Companies Are Suffering

December 22, 2008

Tibco Software might be thought of as a software developer with a high-risk business.

Tibco is closing deals with companies that are hurting, says Vivek Ranadive

Tibco is closing deals with companies that are hurting, says Vivek Ranadive

It sells to financial-services firms that are feeling the brunt of the sub-prime mortgage crisis. It also relies on large deals, with 20 in the fourth quarter over $1 million. Large deals often are the first cut in tough times.

But instead of stumbling as it reported fourth-quarter earnings on Monday, the Palo Alto company posted solid numbers, even if slightly below what Wall Street expected. In these times, that is good news.

“We’re closing deals with companies that are hurting out there,” says CEO Vivek Ranadive. “They still need our software to keep running” and to keep their trading floors open for business.

Tibco argues it is well positioned for a market shift away from software systems built around traditional databases.

Looking forward, corporations are tightening budgets, but not cutting their spending entirely, company executives said on a conference call with analysts.

For its first quarter, Tibco expects revenue of $140 million to $144 million, down 2 percent to 5 percent from a year ago. The company sees itself as a growth company but will focus on protecting margins in the present environment, says CFO Murray Rode.


Oracle Ready To Pass IBM As Top Middleware Company, Ellison Boasts; Also Claims Wins Over Salesforce

December 18, 2008

Oracle cautiously predicted Thursday that software sales could fall in its current quarter as a stronger dollar and the global downturn work against it.

Oracle may already be largest middleware company, Larry Ellison says

Oracle may already be the largest middleware company, Larry Ellison says

But the software colossus said its middleware business is in high gear and now is at least the same size as rival IBM’s.

“We may have passed them to be the number one middleware company,” CEO Larry Ellison said while discussing second-quarter earnings with analysts.

Oracle’s middleware business has been aided by acquisitions, such as its purchase of BEA Systems. Now it says it is reaping the benefits. “Our middleware business is growing faster than IBM’s,” says Ellison.

IBM makes the popular WebSphere middleware line.

Ellison also jabbed at Salesforce.com, saying Oracle is winning deals against the smaller competitor.

“When we compete head-to-head with Salesforce.com, we win more deals than we lose,” he said. This is new in the past few quarters, he added.

In the second quarter, Oracle said overall revenue rose 6 percent, but closely watched new software sales fell 3 percent. Software sales could tumble as much as 10 percent in the third quarter, the company predicted.

The Silicon Valley software maker is assuming a lower “close,” or completion, rate for deals than it ever has in the third quarter, said President Safra Catz.


Holiday Traffic At Amazon Is Strong

December 18, 2008

Amazon is capturing more holiday shoppers than last year as a burst of online promotions draw buyers.

This year year-end season is seeing an increase in online shoppers in general, according to Compete. But Amazon’s performance is accelerating compared with last year’s.

Here’s the chart:

Traffic to Amazon from Compete

Traffic to Amazon from Compete


Tim Bajarin’s 8 Predictions For 2009: Tech Will Recover First And Android Could Become An OS

December 17, 2008

Forecasting is more difficult this year with the economy in the clutches of a deep global downturn. But here are seven technology predictions for the next 12 months from industry analyst Tim Bajarin. Barajin also included one prognosis he termed “outrageous:”

Apple will gain 2 points of share in PCs and smart phones, says Tim Bajarin

Apple will gain 2 points of share in PCs and smart phones, says Tim Bajarin

*Windows 7 from Microsoft will help bring tech out of the doldrums when it is release (as many expect) in the third quarter. Sales of PCs will be down in the first half, but could improve;

*Tech will be the first industry to recover, perhaps by the third quarter. Technology has become important to business and consumers who are employed will buy things like notebooks and HDTVs;

*Apple’s market share in PCs and smart phones will grow. The company could grow its share by 2 percentage points in 2009 – even more if it comes out with a low-cost laptop, as some expect;

*The Android software from Google will expand its reach, by next Christmas finding its way into set-top boxes, digital televisions and mobile Internet devices. Android could become an operating system in its own right and a threat to Linux;

Here is the outrageous projection:
*Microsoft will make a play to buy Research In Motion. If Apple’s iPhone makes serious inroads into the business market, Microsoft will want to enhance its enterprise position, Microsoft could then blend RIM into a service.

Windows 7 could help improve PC sales

Windows 7 could help improve PC sales

*Netbook sales will double in 2009. Manufacturers should sell between 36 and 38 million of these low-cost more-mobile machines. Low margins will force vendors to create ecosystems of services tied to the machines to drive new revenue;

*Smart phones will gain market share. By 2012, 75 percent of phones sold in the U.S. will be smart phones. Apple’s iPhone and RIM’s Blackberry will gain greater footholds domestically and in Europe;

*The unemployed will start small businesses, including professionals. PC technology and communications will likely be at their heart.


Adobe Retools Strategy For Lasting Downturn; Analysts Fear Revenue Will Fall In 2009

December 16, 2008

Adobe Systems said Tuesday the global downturn cut sharply into fourth-quarter sales of its latest graphic-design software and that it was preparing for a difficult year ahead.

Sales of the recently launched Creative Suite 4 bundle of products, including the popular Photoshop and Illustrator, were 20 percent lower than for the previous Creative Suite 3.

Adobe to spark demand for Creative Suite 4, says Shantanu Narayen

Adobe to spark demand for Creative Suite 4, says Shantanu Narayen

Looking ahead, “given the economic climate, we believe Creative Suite 4 adoption in the short term will be muted,” CEO Shantanu Narayen said on a conference call with analysts.

As a result, the company said it was taking austerity measures to focus resources and cut costs. It also affirmed that first-quarter revenue could be down 7 percent or more, giving rise to fears among analysts that sales for fiscal year could be lower, too.

The downturn is “more global than we saw in the 2001 and 2002 time frame,” Narayen said. Adobe did not provide an annual forecast.

The company’s strategic priorities for navigating the downturn include:

*Promoting Flash as the preferred multimedia software for the Web;
*Investing in its flagship Creative Suite and Acrobat software;
*Highlighting its fast growing LiveCycle, Connect Pro and Scene7 products;
*Remaining consistently profitable; and
*Cutting expenses for travel, salaries and contractors.

The weakness in Creative Suite revenue was largely tied to shrink-wrapped, or retail, sales and not license sales to companies, said Narayen. The company will work to spark in-store demand, he said.

Adobe’s fourth-quarter report was consistent with a financial warning the company issued early this month lowering sales targets and unveiling a cost-cutting program with about 600 layoffs, or 6 percent of the workforce.


Consumer Electronics Returns Are A $13.8 Billion Problem In The U.S. Likely To Get Worse

December 16, 2008

They are the six little words that can spoil an electronic vendor’s holiday.

After months of design meetings, weeks of in-store discounting and last-ditch advertising blitzes, million of crystal-clear flat-panel TVs, GPS locators and feature-stuffed smart phones have found their ways under American Christmas trees

Returns can be 5% to 6% of a vendors sales

Returns can be 5% to 6% of a vendor's sales

Now comes the verdict merchants fear most: “I want to take them back.”

Each year, $13.8 billion of electronics goods is returned to manufacturers, retailers and communications companies in the U.S. With the global downturn wearing on consumer spending, the total may be down slightly this year.

But on a percentage-of-sales basis, it could rise, with devastating consequences for companies already living on razor-thin margins.

“I believe the industry realizes this is a significant problem,” says Brian Sprague, senior executive at Accenture, who calculates the annual returns number.

Sprague says returns can account for 2 to 3 percent of a retailer’s sales and 5 to 6 percent of a manufacturer’s sales.

Among the products most likely brought back are mobile phones (especially smart phones), GPS gear and wireless networking equipment. High-definition televisions and computers also make the roundtrip to stores are a fairly brisk rate.

About one-quarter of consumers return because a product doesn’t work or because they perceived it doesn’t work. Only 5 percent of products actually have defects, says Sprague.

Nearly half of returns come because items don’t meet buyer expectation while the remaining consumers developed some sort of remorse for purchasing what they did – a feeling more buyers could have this year with money increasingly tight.

Sprague offers a list of best practices for companies experiencing returns. Many firms are doing some of them and top companies are doing many of them, he says. But “some companies are saying our margins are so thin we can’t put (new procedures) in there,” he says.

On his list are: 1) use graphical information and illustrations on a Web site to educate buyers about the use of a product; 2) put more product experts on consumer call-in lines; 3) put educated staff in stores to help with installations, data transfers and the like; 4) add to the packaging a request to call with problems or questions; and 5) provide displays at the point of purchase on how a product is used.


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