Lithium Ion Battery Prices On Slow Decline

July 28, 2010

Nissan Motors will offer an 8-year, 100,000-mile warranty for the lithium-ion battery in its electric Leaf hatchback.

General Motors has a similarly generous 8-year, 100,000-mile guarantee for its Volt hybrid, which it announced just days before Nissan unveiled its warranty on Tuesday.

Carmakers are becoming increasingly comfortable with the capabilities of batteries they once considered risky and unproven.

But they say it will still be years before price declines permit electric cars to compete effectively with gasoline-powered models without subsidies. Several said at the Plug-In 2010 conference prices could fall 50 percent to 75 percent – but only over the next five to 10 years.

Lithium-ion batteries prices today are generally said to be between $500 and $1,000 a kilowatt-hour. Consider then an average price of $750.

Observations from the conference suggest:

*Prices could drop to between $350 and $400 a kilowatt hour in five years – a projection from Ron Iacobelli, chief technology officer at Azure Dynamics, a supplier of drive technology for commercial electric and hybrid vehicles.

*Forecasts looking further see price declines to $250 by 2020 (even as energy density improves 30 percent to 50 percent). Asked if the target is conceivable, Ford’s Director of Global Electrification Nancy Gioia says: “That’s what everyone is shooting for.”

*At prices below $300 a kilowatt-hour, carmakers see an electric car competing effectively with gasoline vehicles without subsidies.

Perhaps most surprising is that the Chinese cost advantage seems to be disappearing as lithium-ion battery production expands in the United States and elsewhere.

Eighteen months ago, Chinese manufacturers touted costs that were lower, even if their prices didn’t include delivery. Since, they have risen slightly and are comparable – or between $500 and $1,000 a kilowatt-hour, says Haresh Kamath, a project manager at the Electric Power Research Institute.


Ford Ahead Of Schedule With Strategy For Low Carbon Cars

June 8, 2010

Ford is relying on its EcoBoost engine and sharp reductions in vehicle bulk to meet its low carbon goals – putting electrification into the back seat for now

The carmaker will report next week that it could surpass its 2020 goal of cutting CO2 emissions from its new U.S. and European cars by 30 percent compared with 2006. The greater confidence will be highlighted in its annual Sustainability Report, which will be released June 15.

Up to now, the Dearborn manufacturer has maintained that it is on track to reach the goal.

Ford's economical EcoBoost engine is one leg of the carbon-reduction stategy. Weight loss is the other.

The greater-than-expected progress is the result of a two-pronged effort to push its economical EcoBoost engine into existing models and take hundreds of pounds out of next-generation designs, says John Viera, director of sustainable business practices.

Ford sent the EcoBoost into production last year and the engine could be available in more than a million vehicles annually by 2013. Its greater fuel efficiency comes from the use of high-pressure fuel injection, which sprays cylinders with a mist of gasoline. Fuel economy gains can be up to 20 percent. Performance improvements allow V6 motors to be used in place of V8s, and 4s instead of 6s.

Ford is accompanying the EcoBoost with more modest steps it calls “1 percent” enhancements. A six-speed transmission might be installed instead of a five-speed, or electric power-assist steering might be used to cut down on resistance.

Major overhauls of production vehicles are done every four to six years, and new designs will see a big focus on weight reduction.The initiative could take 250 to 750 pounds out of cars, major steps for an industry that rejoices at taking 10 pounds from a current model.

Some of the weight reduction will come from the use of different materials, particularly aluminum and high-strength steel. The consequence is that less energy will be needed to power cars, and engines can be downsized. So a 1.7 liter, four-cylinder motor can substitute for a 2.4 liter.

As to greater engine efficiencies from breakthroughs in internal-combustion design, technology gains are difficult to project at this time. “I don’t necessarily see that on the horizon,” says Viera.

Ford claims its 30 percent emissions cuts are necessary to blunt the environment impact of global warming. Cars and trucks contribute 20 percent of the world’s CO2 emissions, and if the danger line is 450 parts per million of CO2 in the atmosphere, as some scientists believe, then the 30-percent target is what the company needs to do its part. The CO2 level is about 380 ppm today.

Vierra says the role of electric cars in climate change will be limited for the immediate future because of their comparatively small volumes. Electric cars and trucks will play a far more important role in the 2030 to 2040 timeframe, when the world will need to move away from fossil fuels for transportation, he says.

It is important to prepare for that shift today.


Biofuels Business A Roller Coaster, But Ford Signs Up

May 4, 2010

The United States now produces more ethanol than gasoline refined from Saudi Arabian and Iraqi oil.

This fact is a fitting reminder of the growing prominence of the nation’s biofuels industry. Last year, ethanol production hit a record in the U.S. and new refineries under construction will expand that capacity ten fold.

The Fusion is one of 11 flexible fuel vehicles Ford offers. The company will expand biofuels vehibles 50 percent in two years.

It is no surprise then that some carmakers are showing greater interest in alternative fuel internal combustion engines. On Tuesday, for instance, Ford announced it would to expand its production of flexible-fuel cars and trucks, with 50 percent of vehicles by 2012 able to burn ethanol and other biofuels.

Of course, the biofuels business has been an up and down ride. Biofuels companies plunged into the red during the first half of 2009 as the global recession cut demand for their products. But by the second half of the year, many of the nation’s 170 refineries recovered, with profits returning and production hitting a record.

However, this year will be a little more troublesome again. Expectations are for more modest growth, with production forecast to rise 12 percent to 11.9 million gallons, according to the Renewable Fuels Association, a trade group. The nation will have 189 refineries.

The roller coaster will continue. Refineries under construction will add 1.4 billion gallons of new capacity, with the first wave of cellulosic, or second-generation, producers coming up to commercial levels.

The nation’s biodiesel business has had an even more difficult fate. While the counry’s180 biodiesel plants produced 350 million gallons of biodiesel in 2009, production was down by 50 percent from a year earlier. Part of the explanation is the global recession, which squelched demand. But a European Community anti dumping tariff on U.S. imports added to the woes. Europe has been the largest importer of U.S. biodiesel..

Today U.S. plants are operating at only about 15 percent of capacity.

Still, companies such as Ford aren’t dismayed. The carmaker builds 11 flexible fuel vehicles and has doubled that number since 2006.

This will amount to 370,000 cars and trucks in 2010. “Flexible-fuel vehicles are a great alternative,” says Sue Cischke, a Ford group vice president. If only it could be a better business.


Ford Doubles Down With Microsoft, Is First To Use Smart Grid Hohm Software

March 31, 2010

Ford became the first automaker to agree to use Microsoft’s Hohm smart grid software for electric cars, deepening the relationship between the two companies.

Ford goes Hohm, expects to use the smart grid electric car recharging software in its Focus Electric in 2011

Ford already relies on Microsoft’s Windows Embedded Automotive software in its Sync in-car communications and entertainment system, now installed in 2 million cars.

Hohm will first appear in Ford’s Focus Electric vehicle in 2011 and enable drivers to determine when to recharge their cars and how to conserve energy at home during recharging. It is estimated electric cars will double home energy use, so scheduling a battery recharging when rates are low and demand elsewhere in the home is modest can be key.

The companies did not discuss financial arrangements in a press release issued Wednesday at the New York International Auto Show. But Hohm, which provides insight into energy use, is presently available for free to consumers.

Microsoft and Ford said they would work with utilities to jointly advance energy management efforts as electric cars gain wider use.

Clearly both companies value the new relationship. The press release included comments attributed to both CEOs. “Today, we begin the next major step in our working together and leading the way for energy efficiency and environmental sustainability,” said Ford CEO Alan Mulally.

“With Microsoft Hohm, Ford and Microsoft will deliver a solution that will make it easier for car owners to make smart decisions about the most affordable and efficient ways to recharge electric vehicles, while giving utilities better tools for managing the expected changes in energy demand,” added Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer.


Ford Says Its Lithium Ion Batteries Show Little Degradation

March 4, 2010

Electric cars are likely to play a big role in America’s – and the world’s – transportation future.

Forty percent of cars on the road by 2050 will be electrics, such as Ford's Transit Connect van, predicts Shell's Peter Voser.

Shell CEO Peter Voser is one advocate. By 2050, the world’s fleet of automobiles will grow to 2 billion vehicles from 1 billion today. About 40 percent of them will be electric cars, he said Thursday.

A key motivator will be the high price of oil. But improvements in electric motors and battery technology will bring in buyers who today might sit on the fence.

Perhaps the biggest improvement will need to come to batteries. Experts say advances in lithium ion batteries, the most common choice for electric cars, are hard to achieve. The batteries have the potential to double or triple in performance. But it could take a decade or more.

One company taking the first steps to understand electrics and batteries is Ford, which will begin selling its first electric vehicle in the fourth quarter of this year.

The company’s first pure electric will be the Transit Connect commercial van. The pint-sized van is powered by a 600-pound, 41 amp lithium ion battery installed under the van’s cargo bay. It has 192 cells, generates 28 kWh of juice and has shown amazing durability in testing, says Praveen Cherian, program manager.

The battery, made by Johnson Controls-Saft, has been driven about 186,000 miles in trials and shown only about 5 percent deterioration, he said on Thursday, strong results for a technology some expect to degrade more rapidly.

The vehicle is designed to last 10 years, or 120,000 miles, and should be able to meet that criteria, Chervian said during a San Francisco test drive.

The van is to go into limited production in the fourth quarter with volume manufacturing kicking off in the first. Ford projects 1,000 units will be made. No price has been announced. The vehicle is designed for short-range commercial deliveries and use by repair crews.

It will be followed by the electric Focus in 2011 and a plug-in hybrid electric in 2012. The 2012 vehicle will likely to be the Escape SUV.

While these first few vehicles represent a chance for the company to learn as much as consumers about this nascent technology, the lessons will be taught on the go. If Shell’s Voser is right, there won’t be much time to sit around contemplate.


Ford Boasts Its Escape Hybrid Gets Up To 120 MPG, Tests Smart Grid Software

March 2, 2010

Ford with great excitement announced an expanded alliance with Progress Energy of North Carolina to test its plug-in hybrid electric vehicle, the Escape.

But buried in the press release issued Tuesday were several more interesting facts. First, Ford in partnership with almost a dozen utilities in North America has now logged more than 160,000 miles on a fleet of 21 Escape prototypes since mid 2007.

The Escape plug-in hybrid is testing Ford smart grid recharging software system

Second, during the testing, the prototypes using electric power and a gasoline engine achieved up to 120 MPG.

In one sense, it is surprising the vehicles haven’t covered many more miles. But considering the program probably started slowly and gained momentum in recent months, the company is obviously collecting some useful data.

What is unfortunate is that Ford did not offer more information on mileage. For instance, it didn’t explain what conditions led to the 120-MPG achievement. Nor did it offer an average MPG.

But it is interesting to note that substantial improvements in endurance are possible, even as carmakers complain about federal demands for an improvement in their fleets’ efficiency.

The Ford Escape hybrid is scheduled to go on sale in 2012, and the company claims it can travel up to 35 miles with little or no gas. Its batteries take up to eight hours to recharge with household current.

With respect to Progress Energy, the company has been testing one plug-in Escape in Raleigh since February 2009. It will now test a second car, a 2010 Escape with what Ford calls “the industry’s first vehicle-to-electric ‘smart’ grid communications and control system.”

The goal of the system is to allow drivers to take advantage of less expensive electric rates by deciding when and for how long to recharge their vehicles.


Ford Getting Early Lessons About Electric Cars From Major Field Trial

January 20, 2010

Ford is plugging in to “plug-ins.”

The carmaker has begun receiving an early wave of data from what could be the world’s largest test of a fleet of plug-in hybrids. The goal is to understand how cars (and drivers) interact with the smart electric grids utilities are building to manage the recharging of batteries.

It seems consumers and utilities have as much to learn as the company itself.

Ford will sell the Focus electric car in 2011 and a plug-in hybrid in 2012.

Ford has 21 plug-in electric hybrids in the hands of 12 North American utilities, including major power generators Con Edison, Progress Energy and Southern California Edison. Employees drive the cars, take them home, plug them in and come to rely on lithium ion batteries as they would a gasoline engine.

The trial is a key step in preparing the nation for what could be a flood of electric and electric hybrids over the next 10 years. As more cars hits the roads, more coordination will be needed to assure electricity is available to replenish batteries, both during the night and day.

What seems clear is that consumers have a lot to learn about electrics and plug-in hybrids. According to Greg Frenette, manager of global electrified fleets, Ford is receiving valuable field test data on its lithium ion battery, but is getting an equally important peek at driver behavior.

Perhaps the most interesting observation from the six-month-old test is that consumers aren’t yet sure when to plug-in and when not to. Some consumers pay more attention to recharging batteries at times of the day when power is cheaper to produce, such as at night. Others show less concern and plug in whenever they can, especially when someone else is picking up the bill, such as their employer.

“I’m seeing that in the behavior of those who driving the vehicles,” says Frenette. Of course, these habits could change if utilities get permission to charge higher electric rates during periods of high demand and cut them when demand is low.

But if not – at least in the short run – electric car charging may be less predictable than utilities hope.

At the same time, “range anxiety” – the fear of running out of power – is less of a concern with hybrids. That’s because gasoline motors are in place to take over when batteries run out of juice. Consumers, it seems, aren’t confused by the difference between hybrids and all electrics.

The plug-in hybrid Ford has deployed is a prototype of the car it plans to begin selling in 2012. It is the company’s first plug in and is so far unnamed.

Despite unsettled consumer habits, Frenette says the trial has taught him that the early stages of the electric car rollout out won’t dramatically tax the electric grid. The grid is robust enough to handle the first waves of cars, he says. It is only when car volumes become significant that utilities are going to need to plan for the demand surges that come when thousands of cars plug in at once (such as during the evening).

“Longer term there are some reasons to make upgrades,” Frenette says.

Still, there could be short-term problems with the grid, particularly in neighborhoods with lots of electric cars. Local lines could need new transformers and perhaps substations.

Frenette says the grand ambitions of some pundits that scores of electric cars will become giant grid batteries for storing electricity to use later are pie in the sky. “Vehicle to grid energy transfer…isn’t a near term reality,” he says. For it to be an option down the road, both car and grid will need to be re-engineered.

While Ford is getting useful lessons on electric car behavior, it is clear that the rollout of battery powered cars will require behavior changes that won’t take place over night. Utilities and drivers will need some time to adjust.


High Cost Batteries Could Limit The Spread Of Electric Cars, One Study Says. But Is This So?

January 19, 2010

The hype behind electric cars is, well, high energy.

Yet sales of these save-the-earth vehicles could be seriously constrained by the high cost of batteries. So says a study by the Boston Consulting Group. But not all carmakers are buying into the conclusion.

Some argue rapidly expanding production volumes will significantly lower the costs of batteries for electric cars

Most automakers appear to be planning on advanced batteries that will cost as little as $250 a kilowatt-hour of energy. But achieving that goal by 2020 will be a stretch without a major breakthrough in battery technology, according to the study co-written by analyst Xavier Mosquet.

Battery costs will fall over the next decade, and already lithium ion offers a lighter, more powerful alternative to the nickel-metal hydride battery in the Toyota Prius.

However, today’s prices of $1,000 to $1,200 a kWh may not reach the $250 to $500 a kWh level, the study finds. Carmakers seem focused on this lower price level because it is close to the $250 to $400 per kWh cost of lithium ion batteries used in consumer electronics. Yet consumer electronics batteries are simpler than car batteries and have less demanding requirements in terms of lifespan and safety, says Boston Consulting Group. Prices of auto batteries may not fall this far.

Some carmakers are hesitant to draw the same conclusion. Greg Frenette, manager of global electrified fleets at Ford, says a major technological breakthrough would be useful, but might not be necessary.

Battery production will increase dramatically over the decade, and prices will fall significantly as the manufacturing lines expand, he says. By Boston Consulting Group’s own estimate, the market will reach $25 billion by 2020, or triple the size of the today’s consumer market for lithium ions.

“I think volume can have a significant impact on overall cost,” says Frenette. For electric carmakers, the metric will be a key one to follow.


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