Global Warming Skepticism Linked To Cooler Temperatures, Not Stolen E-Mail

June 9, 2010

A new study of attitudes toward climate change confirms the number of global warming skeptics is on the rise.

But it traces this three-year trend to cooler temperatures in 2008 and not the controversy over e-mail stolen from East Anglia climate scientists.

The study by Stanford University and funded by the National Science Foundation mirrors the conclusions of recent Pew Research Center and Gallup surveys that show an increase in global warming disbelievers. However, it offers an explanation for the trend that the other surveys don’t.

Seventy-five percent of Americans say manmade sources are behind global warming and a similar majority supports government efforts to limit greenhouse gases and encourage the use of green products and energy

“Statistical analysis of our data revealed that this decline is attributable to perceptions of recent weather changes by the minority of Americans who have been skeptical about climate scientists,” Stanford Professor Jon Krosnick wrote Wednesday in The New York Times.

The study found that the number of people who believe in global warming dropped to 74 percent this year from 84 percent in 2007. Krosnick points out that 2008 was the coldest year since 2000 and that disbelievers were the ones most acutely aware of these declining global temperatures. (Scientists say year-to-year fluctuations have little bearing on long-term global warming theories.)

The Stanford research contrasts with the commonly held assumption that embarrassing e-mail hacked from computers at the University of East Anglia in Britain and the discovery of minor flaws in the influential Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report were to blame for the changing attitudes. Conservatives have tried to make the most of the e-mail and minor flaws to undermine support for climate science.

However, only 9 percent of Americans contacted by Stanford this month knew of the e-mail and distrusted scientists as a result. Only 13 percent said flaws in the report changed their views.

Perhaps most encouraging is the study’s finding that a large majority of Americans continue to accept the scientific evidence of the planet’s warming. Seventy-four percent say temperatures are probably heating up and 75 percent are convinced manmade sources are substantially responsible.

As a result, 76 percent want the government to limit greenhouse gas emissions. While about three-quarters of Americans are against new taxes (including one on gasoline), more than 80 percent favor tax breaks to utilities, carmakers and appliance makers to make products that use less fossil fuel and generate electricity from renewable sources.

This, of course, is the welcome news.


Al Gore Responds To Climate Critics: You Can’t Wish It Away

February 28, 2010

Al Gore responded to climate critics on Sunday in a The NewYork Times op-ed piece entitled  “We Can’t Wish Away Climate Change.”

Minor mistakes in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report don't change its conclusions, says Al Gore

The former vice president and climate crusader took aim at naysayers who he said doggedly persist in trying to prove every major National Academy of Sciences report on global warming is hugely wrong.

“Unfortunately, the reality of the danger we are courting has not been changed by the discovery of at least two mistakes in the thousands of pages of careful scientific work over the last 22 years by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,” he wrote. Global warming disbelievers say the two mistakes – an incorrect projection for the melting of Himalayan glaciers and an overstatement of the amount of the Netherlands below sea level – undermine the report.

In addition, e-mail message stolen from the University of East Anglia in Britain hardly wish away the temperature records the university generates. Instead they show that “scientists besieged by an onslaught of hostile, make-work demands from climate skeptics may not have adequately followed the requirements of the British freed of information law,” he said.

Despite these failings, the scientific consensus on global warming remains unchanged, with the world dumping 90 million tons of greenhouse gas pollution into the atmosphere everyday.

January may have seemed unusually cold in the United States, but globally it was the second hottest January in the past 130 years, Gore said.

Congress, instead of moving ahead with regulation, is paralyzed by the disbelievers, supported by businesses that depend on unrestrained pollution and news organization who “present showmen masquerading as political thinkers who package hatred and divisiveness as entertainment,” he wrote.

Gore went on to point out that the United States trails China in the race to develop smart electric grids, fast trains, solar power, wind energy, geothermal plants and therefore sources for new 21st Century jobs.

It is time, he added, to do the right thing.


Scientists Defend UN Climate Change Report From Right Wing Assault

February 23, 2010

Scalding critiques of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 2007 report run hotter than Ronald Reagan’s temper confronting a Vietnam War peace demonstration.

Mistakes, these right wing critics claim, undermine the entire U.N.-sponsored study.

Global warming disbelievers have attacked the UN's IPCC report. But rather trivial errors in the document don't undermine its findings.

It is shocking the force that several rather trivial errors have in seeming to undermine a massive three-volume report totaling more than 3,000 pages. Welcome to the crazy  the climate change debate.

It was the IPCC report that formally warned that  the burning of fossil fuels was warming the globe and called for action to be taken. The study was immediately assailed as over reaching. Now right-wingers and Republicans are feasting on several errors uncovered in the report to complain its conclusions should be ignored. Among the mistakes is an incorrect date for the melting of the Himalayan glaciers. The study claimed 2035, but it is more likely later this century.

Another incorrect statement describes the Netherlands as more than 50 percent under sea level. A final missed detail is the result of the IPCC relying on non-scientific source to claim that 40 percent of the Amazon rain forest will become to savanna if the warming trend from CO2 accumulation is not reversed.

None of these mistakes should have appeared in the scholarly work, people from both sides of the political aisle agree. But they are relatively minor points considering the scope of the work, according to climate scientists interviewed about the controversy.

“I’m not surprised that a report which involves three massive volumes (each over 1000 pages of smallish print), written by over 450 lead authors and 800 contributing authors (and reviewed by 2,500 expert experts who submitted 90,000 review comments on the draft document) (could) have a few errors in it,” says Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, professor and director of the Global Change Institute at the University of Queensland in Australia.

“When you compare it to the gross errors of fact which are promulgated by people claiming that climate change is not occurring, these few errors in an otherwise very watertight document are relatively insignificant,” he says.

Preventing errors should be a major concern for the IPCC. But do they justify throwing out the rest of the wor?. “Of course not,” Hoegh-Guldberg wrote in an e-mail.


Global Warming Doubters Miss The Target (And The Facts)

February 22, 2010

Global warming doubters have mounted a furious attack recently on the science of global warming. But these 21st Century luddites are making a cardinal mistake – inferring from minor oversights and mistakes the collapse of decades of established science.

"The best current view from science still makes it nearly certain that man-made CO2 is respsonbile for most fo the warming of the past century," says Stanford University professor Robert Dunbar.

Climatologists and scientists at top universities reveal how hollow their arguments are. In e-mail exchanges, TechPulse 360 queried several of these experts on key points being used by right wingers and Republicans in Congress, including Oklahoma Senator James Inhofe, who once described the Internet as a series of vacuum tubes.

Among the doubters’ key weapons is a series of e-mail and documents stolen in November from the climate research unit of the University of East Anglia in Britain. The copied cache of data includes more than 1,000 e-mail, 2,000 documents and technical software code. The climate research unit supplied some of the temperature measurements and calculations used in the influence Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report on global warming. The U.N.-sponsored report, issued in 2007, concludes the burning of fossil fuels in power plants and cars contributes to climate change and needs to be curtailed worldwide.

Naysayers complain the purloined e-mail catch scientists manipulating data and conspiring to silence critics.

Robert Dunbar, a professor of earth science at Stanford University, disagrees. He says the e-mail offer signs of scientists frustrated with those who dismiss global warming science, but provide no evidence of manipulation.

More proof of global warming lies in the oceans, where one-third of CO2 is collected. This leads to acidification. "It just isn't open for argument - the science is too simple," says Dunbar.

In his e-mail, Dunbar, who in the past has submitted scientific data to the university, noted that he spent eight hours reading the messages. “I didn’t see evidence of purposeful manipulation of data or cherry-picking to tell a predetermined story,” he said. “There was talk of not including certain articles in the IPCC review, but in the end they were included.”

He adds that the critical university temperature records are one of several independent records, and they are almost identical to the ones generated by NOAA and NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

“There are still some uncertainties, but the best current view from science still makes it nearly certain that man-made CO2 is responsible for most of the warming of the past century,” Dunbar writes. “I haven’t seen anything in recent revelations from the East Anglia e-mails or the AR4 that changes this basic conclusion. I also note that the professional skeptics remain a fairly small well-connected group with an agenda that seems to differ from the scientific method.”

Dunbar takes a separate tact as well to illustrate the dangers of global warming. “The real kicker is this: even if we were uncertain about the validity of man-induced (temperature) rise, no one can credibly question the science behind ocean acidification. CO2 has risen in the atmosphere. We know this rise comes from fossil fuel burning. We know about one-third has dissolved into the ocean. We have measured the pH change this has caused. It just isn’t open for argument – the physics is too simple. In the landscape of impacts, some scientists feel that the consequences of ongoing ocean acidification on ocean community health are severe. So even, if warming was highly uncertain, the ocean side of the story alone should be a compelling argument for mitigation.”

Got it?


Intergovernmental Panel To Recommend Higher Renewable Energy Use

December 2, 2009

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is ready to raise its target for renewable energy use.

At the United Nation’s Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen next week, the panel will recommend states and municipalities shoot for what it calls a “zero carbon” energy mix. The goal will require renewables to account for 85 percent of energy use by 2050 and fossil fuels the remainder.

There is not question the new targets can be met, says Berkeley professor Daniel Kammen

The new formula is an acceleration of the targets progressive states and cities have in place today, where decade-long initiatives will bring renewables to 15 percent, 20 percent or perhaps 33 percent levels. Many laggard states haven’t yet put plans in place.

Daniel Kammen, a Berkeley professor and a coordinating lead author for the panel, says climate scientists haven’t sent strong enough signals of the gathering dangers of climate change. But he describes himself as a optimist as to the new target.

“There is no question in my view it can be accomplished,” he said this week at a Google sponsored green-tech event in San Francisco.

The 85 percent renewables and zero carbon target can be met with solar providing up to 25 percent of a state’s energy; wind, 20 percent; nuclear, 20 percent; hydroelectric, 10 percent; and carbon capture and sequestration, 20 percent.

Energy efficiency measures could make up for any shortfalls in the mix.

Ready, set, the new renewables race is on.


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