The woes of the solar industry continue and are likely to get worse.
Once in short supply, polysilicon wafers for solar cells are in abundance and prices are falling
With demand having collapsed at the start of the year and new factories continuing to come on line, unsold solar cells and modules are piling up in warehouses.
The industry’s only salvation may be a price collapse, making solar cells as cheap as optical bandwidth at the depths of the dot-com washout.
At that point, the dynamics of the industry could change dramatically. Until then, companies will have an increasingly difficult time making money.
In a sign of the continuing troubles, inventories of solar gear, including silicon wafers, soared 64 percent in the first quarter, according to iSuppli.
The glut added 1.5 months of supply to an industry already producing more goods than the market is able to absorb. Prices have suffered and will decline further.
ISuppli believes that the “spot” market price for a kilogram for polysilicon, a foundation material for solar cells, will fall to $50 by December from $180 a kilogram at the start of the year. It is a startling decline.
Companies such as REC, Yingli, and SolarWorld have felt the brunt of the inventory excess because they are involved in all stages of solar cell production, from the polysilicon to wafers and cells. Inventories for these integrated manufacturers rose to more than 161 days from 86 days in the first quarter of last year.
ISuppli expects inventories to continue swelling into 2010 –with the woes facing producers mounting.
Source: iSuppli
Posted by Mark Boslet 
