Forecasting is more difficult this year with the economy in the clutches of a deep global downturn. But here are seven technology predictions for the next 12 months from industry analyst Tim Bajarin. Barajin also included one prognosis he termed “outrageous:”
Apple will gain 2 points of share in PCs and smart phones, says Tim Bajarin
*Windows 7 from Microsoft will help bring tech out of the doldrums when it is release (as many expect) in the third quarter. Sales of PCs will be down in the first half, but could improve;
*Tech will be the first industry to recover, perhaps by the third quarter. Technology has become important to business and consumers who are employed will buy things like notebooks and HDTVs;
*Apple’s market share in PCs and smart phones will grow. The company could grow its share by 2 percentage points in 2009 – even more if it comes out with a low-cost laptop, as some expect;
*The Android software from Google will expand its reach, by next Christmas finding its way into set-top boxes, digital televisions and mobile Internet devices. Android could become an operating system in its own right and a threat to Linux;
Here is the outrageous projection:
*Microsoft will make a play to buy Research In Motion. If Apple’s iPhone makes serious inroads into the business market, Microsoft will want to enhance its enterprise position, Microsoft could then blend RIM into a service.
Windows 7 could help improve PC sales
*Netbook sales will double in 2009. Manufacturers should sell between 36 and 38 million of these low-cost more-mobile machines. Low margins will force vendors to create ecosystems of services tied to the machines to drive new revenue;
*Smart phones will gain market share. By 2012, 75 percent of phones sold in the U.S. will be smart phones. Apple’s iPhone and RIM’s Blackberry will gain greater footholds domestically and in Europe;
*The unemployed will start small businesses, including professionals. PC technology and communications will likely be at their heart.
Posted by Mark Boslet 
