Chip Market Turns Corner And Posts Strongest Results In A Year

August 21, 2009

The chip market’s fortunes have suffered in the global recession.

In December, business was so slow sales slumped 22 percent. The industry was clearly shrinking.

July orders to shipment ratio highest in a year, VLSI Research says

July orders to shipment ratio highest in a year, VLSI Research says

This week, two reports have confirmed a solid recovery is underway. They suggest companies are once again growing, with orders exceeding shipments for the first time since the downturn began.

According to research released Friday from VLSI Research, the industry began showing signs of a strong recovery in July. The book-to-bill ratio for the month of 1.29 (meaning $129 of orders come in for every $100 of product shipped) was the highest since July 2008.

Integrated circuit orders advanced 8.1% and were almost double the level of February, VLSI said.

A separate report from SEMI, a trade association for makers of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, also found an expansion under way.

Manufacturers in North America posted a July book to bill of 1.06. It is the first time the industry has seen orders exceed shipments since January 2007. (Orders are still well below last year’s level, however.)

Obviously several more months of improving conditions will be necessary before real confidence returns. But the industry looks to have taken an important step toward recovery.


Intel Earnings Could Be Vaporware

August 6, 2009

Intel reported solid second-quarter sales last month and offered an upbeat outlook for the second half of the year. Wall Street rejoiced this unexpected good news.

Were Intels improving sales based on real PC demand or inventory restocking? The answer is unclear

Were Intel's improving sales based on real PC demand or inventory restocking? The answer is unclear

But the improving market for computer chips that Intel described could be more smoke than fire.

IDC reported Thursday that much of the improvement in PC chip sales during the period was due to refreshing inventory, not the result of improving demand for personal computers.

For instance, Intel’s shipments of its Atom processor for netbooks rose 34 percent from the first quarter, suggesting vendors had held off purchases and were now restocking their shelves.

“The significant sequential ‘snap-back’ rise in Intel’s overall processor shipments—particularly Atom shipments—while AMD’s overall shipments were about flat, indicate that the PC processor market didn’t recover in 2Q09,” says analyst Shane Rau. “Instead, the market balanced out due to Intel driving Atom processors into (vendors) who manufacture the systems, particularly in China and Taiwan.”

So what does that say about the rest of the year? Clearly with inventories now at more normal levels, the market can’t rely on further restocking. The fortunes of companies such as Intel will now rise and fall on the strength of PC demand itself – something that has been anything but certain this year.


Chip Forecast Reverses Course And Sees A Worse 2009

July 9, 2009

After weeks of more upbeat forecasts for semiconductor market, one research firm has reversed course and predicted a worse 2009 than previously anticipated.

ISuppli said it now sees semiconductor sales falling 23 percent this year with the weak automotive market a primary culprit for the deteriorating outlook. The firm in April had projected sales would tumble 21.5 percent.

“Conditions appear to be worse than previously expected,” says Senior Vice President Dale Ford. “The decline of worldwide automobile sales, particularly in North America, has had a major impact on overall electronic equipment shipments.”

In recent weeks, a number of research firms had raised their outlooks for the year citing greater business stability and a sharp draw down in semiconductor inventories. When inventories get too low, manufacturers replenish them by ordering more products.

So against that backdrop, the iSuppli reversal could be viewed as something of a warning – a canary in the silicon factory.

Yet, the research firm’s revision, release late Wednesday, did not paint a consistently dull canvas. Japanese chipmakers, which experienced a sharp reduction in first quarter production, have now reduced excess inventories and resumed production, it said.

This should contribute to global chip revenue rising 10.4 percent from the second to the third quarters and another 4.9 percent in the fourth quarter. Such an increase would be noticeable improvement from earlier this year.

Next year, chip sales should expand a healthy 13.1 percent, iSuppli added, suggesting a steady rebound will take hold. Let’s hope the firm is right this time.

Chip sales should reach $199 billion this year. Source: iSuppli

Chip sales should reach $199 billion this year. Source: iSuppli


Rebound Of 18% Seen In Chip Market

July 2, 2009

It is now becoming widely accepted that the chip market hit its bottom in the first quarter. What remains a matter of debate is how quick the rebound will be.

Researchers at IC Insights suggest the bounce will be fairly significant – in fact, an 18 percent surge to be precise.

In a Wednesday report, the firm said the market should benefit from a strong holiday period, a restocking of depleted inventories and an increase in worldwide GDP (after a decline in the first half of the year).

Here are some data points from the study:

*Second half cellphone and PC unit shipments are to be up by 18 percent and 15 percent, respectively, from the first half;

*China’s second-half gross domestic products is to rise almost 9 percent with the fourth quarter forecast to be more than 9 percent;

*The chip foundry market almost doubled from the first to the second quarters.


Chip Sales Rise In April From Better PC Market

June 1, 2009

Worldwide sales of semiconductors rose 6.4 percent in April in a sign of life for the beleaguered market.

The better-than-expected increase from March was the result of an improvement in end-product demand and a boost in inventory replenishment, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association.

In particular, the PC market has been stronger than predicted earlier this year, with consensus forecasts now projecting a 6 percent decline compared with the earlier forecasts for a 12 percent decline.

The cell phone market also appears more resilient. The outlook is for a 7 percent decline compared with earlier estimates for a 15 percent drop.

PCs and cell phones account for 60 percent of semiconductor consumption.

The SIA said April sales were $15.6 billion. They are still 25 percent below sales in the same month last year.

Sales still down 25 percent from last year, the Semiconuctor Industry Associagion says

Sales still down 25 percent from last year, the Semiconuctor Industry Associagion says


Greater Use Of Semiconductors Could Sharply Reduce Electricity Consumption

May 13, 2009

The increased use of semiconductors to regulate home power use and to manage the electrical grid could sharply cut energy use, a new study finds.

An 11% reduction in power seen in 20 years even as the economy grows 70%

An 11% reduction in power seen in 20 years even as the economy grows 70%

The reduction could be profound enough to whack the need for electricity by 11 percent in 20 years, even as the economy grows 70 percent.

The study was issued Wednesday by the American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy and was paid for by the Semiconductor Industry Association.

Despite it obvious self-serving nature, the study focuses on improvements widely thought possible. According to a statement from Brian Halla, an SIA board member, chip technologies are available or under development to accomplish these goals.

“Chip-enabled technologies will soon deliver solutions to the complex problems involved in harnessing solar and wind power and integrating electricity from these sources into the nation’s distribution grid. New technologies can also achieve dramatic efficiencies in the use of energy in homes, factories, commercial buildings, and all modes of transportation,” Halla said in a statement.


The Final Numbers Are In: Chip Market Down 5.4% In 2008

April 10, 2009

A steep decline in the fourth quarter turned the tables on an otherwise stable market, sending sales down 5.4 percent in 2008.

This year could be a lot worse.

Gartner said its final analysis of the 2008 market showed worldwide sales of $255 billion, off $14.5 billion from 2007. The research firm monitors 275 chip suppliers.

Because of the recession, “we can expect considerable market consolidation going forward,” said Principal Research Analyst Peter Middleton.

Intel, the largest semiconductor company, saw sales fall a modest 0.5 percent last year. But number two company Samsung suffered a 15 percent plunge. Qualcomn, the eighth largest company, saw sales rise 15.3 percent, the best performance among the top 10.


Analyst Sees Improving Conditions For Chip Industry

April 7, 2009

Second-quarter shipments from major Asian chip foundries could be up 50 percent, running well ahead of the typical pace for the period, says Mehdi Hosseini, an analyst at FBR Capital Markets.

Foundry shipments could be up 50 percent in the second quarter, says FBR Capital Markets

Foundry shipments could be up 50 percent in the second quarter, says FBR Capital Markets

The upbeat forecast follows an unusually slow first quarter, when shipments are estimated to have been down 35 percent, said Hosseini in a research note on Tuesday.

The outlook offers a welcome change of pace for an industry that has been hit particularly hard by the slowing economy and the decreased in demand it brought for computers and other goods with semiconductors inside.

But while the second quarter suggests some making up for lost time and depleted inventories, its sustainability is still a question mark.

Consumption in China appears to be the biggest reason for the improving sales, as communications and computer markets elsewhere have yet to rebound, says Hosseini.

It the U.S. and Europe do not show some bounce, third quarter results could weaken. Estimates for the third quarter presently show an 8 to 10 percent increase, the analyst says.

Maybe the stimulus spending by Western nations will kick in.


Chip Sales Nose Dive 28.6% In January

March 2, 2009

The semiconductor market continued its rapid collapse in January, falling 28.6 percent from a year ago.

World chip revenue (source: Semiconductor Industry Association) (Red line is percentage change)

World chip revenue (source: Semiconductor Industry Association) (Red line is percentage change)

Sales were $21.5 billion, representing an 11.9 percent decline from the depressed levels in December 2008, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association.

The weakening occurred in every region of the world, with sharp declines in Asia/Pacific and Japan.

The one positive observation is that inventory levels are low, meaning that manufacturers may need to replenish their stocks soon, said SIA President George Scalise.


Chip Market Will Not Recover Fully Until 2012, Analyst Says

February 23, 2009

The semiconductor market has a long road to ahead.

Manufacturing capacity will fall during the downturn

Manufacturing capacity will fall during the downturn

So says In-Stat analyst Jim McGregor, who on Monday projected it will be 2012 before the industry returns to 2007 sales levels.

McGregor’s report offers a mix of good and bad news. On the negative front, sales for the chip business should fall almost 20 percent this year, a deeper decline than the 5.6 percent the generally more upbeat Semiconductor Industry Association predicted in November.

However, he notes the recovery is expected to start in the second half of the year and continue into 201, when growth will be 11.8 percent.

Despite the modest rebound, the decline will be steep enough and long enough to reduce the amount of available manufacturing capacity through mergers, restructurings and failings – an unusual turn of events.

Manufacturing capacity peaked at 90 percent utilization in early 2008.

Revenue from DSPs, or digital signal processors, declined by 14.9 percent last year to its lowest level since 2003, said In-Stat.


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