Oerlikon Vows To Break 70 Cent Barrier With Thin Film

September 7, 2010

Equipment supplier Applied Materials stepped back from its troubled thin-film solar business this summer. Swiss rival Oerlikon Solar continues to push ahead toward lower cost, higher efficiency production.

Oerlikon said Tuesday it introduced a new line of production gear able to break the 70-cent-a-watt barrier for modules with cell conversion efficiencies as high as 11.9 percent. It expects customers to be in production by mid 2012.

Thin film solar. Oerlikon hopes it can compete.

The news, released at an industry conference in Spain, could set a new benchmark for amorphous thin-film production and is meant to challenge thin-film leader First Solar. First Solar makes thin-film modules using a cadmium-based technology and as of July produced modules at 76 cents a watt. Its target is to reach 52 cents to 63 cents by 2014. Module conversion efficiency was 11.2 percent in the second quarter.

Oerlikon says its improvements are the result of several technical changes. Its module design uses better reflective materials to bounce more light back into the module. Thinner layers of silicon and better factory throughput lower costs.

Oerlikon customers are producing modules at $1 to $1.25 today.

Applied in July killed its SunFab line of amorphous thin-film solar gear citing falling sales and mounting losses. Competitive pressures on amorphous thin film and thin film in general have risen since last year when the price of crystalline silicon cells fell sharply.


Is The Daqo IPO Back? Chinese Polysilicon Maker Files New Business Plan With SEC

August 20, 2010

Daqo New Energy Corp. postponed an initial public offer in January. Two days ago, it filed new documents with the Securities & Exchange Commission suggesting a $100 million IPO may be back on the table.

The new filing lays out a business plan that is scaled back in one measure and more aggressive in another. It also points out that sales have doubled so far this year – growth that could interest investors.

Daqo is a Chinese manufacturer of polysilicon used by solar companies Yingli Green Energy, Solarfun, Solargiga, China Sunergy and Tianwei New Energy to produce photovoltaic products. It boasts it is one of largest polysilicon companies in China.

Taqo has nonetheless scaled back its expansion plans. In its January filing with the SEC, it projected production capacity of 3.300 metric tones by September 2009.

Its updated filing on Aug. 18 says this same level of production capacity (3,300 metric tones) was in place as of June 2010. Plans now call for an expansion to 7,300 metric tonnes by the end of 2012, instead of the 9.300 metric tonnes projected in January.

At the same time, the company is more aggressively pursuing vertical integration. It plans to begin commercial wafer manufacturing in the first quarter of 2011. Module production already has begun with solar cells it buys from other makers. As of June, module production capacity was 50 megawatts. It will grow to 200 megawatts in the first quarter of 2011.

“We also intend to enter into the cell manufacturing business in the future,” the documents says – a new addition to the business plan.

In its January papers, the company’s goal was to expand into module manufacturing and solar power system integration and installation. It offered few details.

Business so far this year appears solid. The company’s revenue for the first six months of the year doubled to $98 million from $49 million for the same period in 2009. Profits rose more slowly, to $18 million from $14 million. For all of 2009, sales were $111 million and net income was $30 million.

Daqo said it would use the money from an IPO to expand its polysilicon and module businesses and to enter wafer manufacturing. It is not the only Chinese solar company to balk on an IPO this year. Both Trony Solar Holdings and JinkoSolar Holding have back away from selling shares to the public.


Huge Expansion Of Solar Production Capacity Continues

August 18, 2010

The manufacturing capacity of crystalline silicon solar panels is set to grow by about 80 percent this year as producers, especially in China, hastily build out factories.

The added capacity should amount to between 11 gigawatts and 13 gigawatts – or roughly the equivalent of this year’s entire market demand, equipment supplier Applied Materials said Wednesday. The company expects sales this year to be above 12 gigawatts.

Crystalline silicon solar cell manufacturing equipment

It’s “a heck of a lot of capacity,” CEO Michael Splinter said on a conference call. “There is a huge expansion in China.”

The onrush of new capacity is likely to lead to further price declines in coming quarters. It also could pressure profit margins at producers.

Applied offered its observation on a third-quarter conference call, where it said it saw solar demand increasing next year in addition to supply. Growth in Germany, the world’s largest market, could moderate from this year. But sales elsewhere in Europe, in China and in parts of the United States should increase.

The company has a particular good vantage point from which to observe production increases since it sells manufacturing equipment to the industry. On the conference call, it said:

*Spending on equipment to make crystalline silicon panels should double in 2010 to $8 billion.

*The utilization of fabs, or factories, has improved.

*The factories of the 10 to 15 largest producers are “fully loaded” and can’t keep up with demand.

*Producers have not yet begun to slow capacity growth. “We haven’t seen signs of a pull back at this point,” says Splinter. “We just see very strong orders.”

Applied said third-quarter sales in its energy and environmental solutions business more than doubled from the second quarter to $387 million, led by its crystalline silicon business. Orders, however, fell to $353 million. In late July, the company killed its SunFab product line for thin-film solar cells manufacturing.

As a result of the SunFab decision, Applied took a quarterly charge of $405 million, which forced the business unit to post an operating loss of $371 million.

Applied said that despite its SunFab decision a Chinese customer is considering a factory and could make a decision whether to go ahead in the fourth quarter.


Suntech Boasts It Is The Largest Solar Company, Warns Of Higher Wafer Costs

August 18, 2010

Suntech Power Holdings said a surge in second-quarter sales made it the world’s largest solar module producer by revenue.

But it warned of higher silicon wafer costs and said its next generation high-efficiency Pluto cells still struggle with manufacturing difficulties.

The Chinese producer reported quarterly sales Wednesday that rose 95 percent from last year to $625 million. Rival First Solar’s sales for its recent second-quarter were $588 million.

However, the company said silicon wafer prices were largely unchanged in the second quarter, but are showing signs of rising. Suntech could find itself exposed to short-term increases, said CEO Zhengrong Shi. The company indicated it would expand its wafer production capacity. (Suntech has a minority stake in wafer maker Shunda Holdings. Shunda is going through reorganization.)

The news led to warning flags from some analysts. “We believe (Suntech’s) costs will remain above its competitors due to near-term tightness in wafer supply,” cautioned Needham’s Y. Edwin Mok.

Suntech also acknowledged that Pluto production still faces hurdles. The company made progress eliminating some production bottlenecks, Shi said on a conference call. He noted that production increase to 6 megawatts during the quarter from 4 megawatts, and that more manufacturing capacity would shift to Pluto in coming months.

The cells are achieving 19 percent efficient on mono-crystalline wafers and are key to Suntech ability to compete with efficiency leader SunPower.

On the conference all, Suntech also said:

*Its decision earlier this month to kill trial production of amorphous thin-film solar cells was tied to the decline in crystalline silicon module prices over the past couple years and delays in final acceptance testing of the line. The company took a $54.6 million impairment charge for its thin-film production equipment.

*It would accelerate plans to add crystalline silicon module production capacity. The new target is 1.8 gigawatts by the end of the year, up from 1.4 gigawatts at the end of the second quarter. The company also increased its shipment target for 2010, to 1.5 gigawatts from 1.3 gigawatts.

*Non-silicon production costs fell to 52 cents a watt from 56 cents. The company said it is on target to reach 50 cents.

*Average module sales prices were down 4 percent in the second quarter, mostly due to the decline in the value of the Euro. Prices could decline slightly in the third quarter, but should be relatively stable in the second half of the year, the company said.

*The solar market remains solid. German business was strong in the second quarter and should remain so during the second half of the year, despite the July cuts in the nation’s feed-in tariff. Sales in France, Italy and the Benelux countries also should grow in the second half of the year.

*Meanwhile, North American demand showed signs of improvement. Sales in the United States grew 35 percent sequentially in the quarter. Suntech also said it sees potential in Asia, particularly in India. The sun’s intensity is good there and the nation’s power grid is unreliable, says Shi. “The Indian market is a sleeping giant in terms of the potential for long-term solar demand.”


The Solar Module Market: Concerns Ahead

July 19, 2010

The solar module market has had a solid 2010, and expectations are the second half of the year will be good, too, despite the feed-in tariff cuts in Germany.

However, questions are arising for 2011.

Pricing and product demand remains favorable as the back half of 2010 begins. That was the word from Intersolar last week. Demand in Germany, the world’s largest market, should pick up later this quarter, after a modest start.

Analysts say they have seen solar cell prices rise a bit this year.

Sales in other European countries, Italy, Spain and the Czech Republic, are moving ahead in advance of tariff cuts of their own. This is leading prices to be stable and wafer prices to even climb a bit. According to Y. Edwin Mok, an analyst at Needham & Co., crystalline cell pricing has risen to $1.35 a watt, compared with $1.25 a watt or so in the first quarter.

This could help vendors such as SunPower, JA Solar and Suntech Power Holdings.

The danger is that this year’s strength will turn into next year’s softness. The fear is especially high in Italy and Spain, which are facing large tariff cuts, says Mok. German installations could decline as well, he adds.

Mok is not alone in his assessment. John Hardy at Gleacher & Company said he expects the world’s largest module maker, First Solar, to post better-than-expected second-quarter sales later this month and speak favorably about the rest of the year.

“The big industry test is coming” in the first quarter of 2011, he says. That’s when sales could slump and another rapid decline in prices could spark worries of another 2009.


SunPower Builds 24% Cell As Solar Market Shifts Underfoot

June 23, 2010

In the Mexican standoff that is the long-standing U.S.-China currency debate, the outcome for the solar industry is difficult to predict.

But one thing is clear. The changing landscape could shift the axis of the solar market over the next year or two as price declines moderate and advanced technology plays a bigger role in buying decisions. With this change as a backdrop, SunPower said Wednesday it successfully built a solar cell with a 24.2 percent market-leading efficiency.

Sunpower says new cell sets record for large wafers. Meanwhile, a rising Chinese currency could change the solar landscape.

The Chinese blinked in the currency debate last Saturday and vowed to permit more market flexibility in the pricing of the renminbi. But after several days of very minor, carefully orchestrated increases, the promise seems to lack short-term monetary firepower.

The most optimistic of analysts predict gradual appreciation in the under-valued Chinese currency over the next several months. The most skeptical observers have begun calling for legislation to combat “currency manipulation” and the artificially low exchange rate.

The implication for clean-tech companies, particularly solar panel makers, is profound. A more expensive Chinese renminbi will raise the cost of what some in the industry consider subsidized, below-market solar panels coming from the country. (Besides being low priced, there are claims some of these panels are low quality as well, failing after a couple years of use.)

In a research note, Wall Street analyst Edwin Mok at Needham said a stronger Chinese currency will result in higher priced panels – or at least a slowing of price declines. This in turn could reduce worldwide demand.

But while Chinese companies might see lower profit margins (or higher losses), companies in the United States and Europe could see benefits. These firms, including SunPower and First Solar, would no longer have to compete with excessively cheap Chinese labor.

In this shifting market place, the race to higher efficiency cells could gain in importance. SunPower said its new cell set a record verified by the National Renewable Energy lab for large silicon wafers.

It did not say when it expects to see 24 percent efficient cells in the market. But the company does seem to be maintaining its lead over rivals, such as JA Solar, with laboratory cells now at 18.5 percent, and Suntech, which is struggling to get its new 19 percent efficient Pluto cells to the market.


Suntech Stumbles With Pluto

June 3, 2010

Suntech Power Holdings said Thursday it has run into difficulties making its high-efficiency Pluto solar cells, raising the possibility of a delay in this next-generation technology.

The Chinese solar giant said the problems arose in ramping manufacturing beyond its present monthly pace of 4 MW. As a result, the company said it decided to maintain this relatively modest production level – probably two factory lines – until it works out the technical kinks.

The move is a blow for Suntech as it begins to transition to this key technology and catch more efficient solar developers, particularly mass-market efficiency leader SunPower. It also could be a setback to Suntech’s hope of pushing Pluto beyond it present 19 percent average efficiency to a 20 target.

Like the distant planet, Suntech's Pluto remains a difficult target to reach

On a first quarter conference call with analysts, Suntech Chief Technology Officer Stuart Wenham described the hang-ups as “small glitches” common when transferring a new technology to large-scale module production.

“In the course of ramping Pluto production to levels well above the current 4 MW a month, we have identified process control challenges to module production,” Wenham said. He added: “We have gained a great deal of experience since we began producing commercial quantities of Pluto cells.”

Suntech says it remains pleased with the cell’s performance and claims nothing is wrong with the Pluto design. Yet Pluto’s average mono-crystalline cell efficiency remains at 19 percent, with the best yielding cells reaching 19.5 percent. Both are well above the market average of 17.5 percent, but the company first achieved 19 percent efficiency as far back as early 2009.

Suntech is “fully confident Pluto will become our core product and the industry benchmark for high-performance and cost-effective solar panels,” Wenham says.

The Pluto design is based on the PERL, or passivated emitter with rear locally diffused, technology developed at Australia’s University of New South Wales, where efficiencies of 25 percent have been achieved in the laboratory. It has low reflectivity to capture more sunlight and thinner metal lines to reduce shading.

While the technology remains promising, Suntech said in a difficult to interpret announcement that it recently began a new solar research initiative with the University of New South Wales and Silex Solar to improve the efficiency and cost of cells. The research received a $5 million grant from Australia. The company also kicked off a collaborative effort with Swinburne University of Technology on nanoplasmonic cells. Suntech describes both efforts as complementary to its work with Pluto.

Because of its high efficiency, Pluto commands a premium price in the market and customer demand appears to be high.  Yet production is far from the 450 MW Suntech plans for the middle of its fiscal year. When the problems are resolved, the company promises production will increase rapidly and engineers are reportedly convinced they can meet the target.

On the conference call, Suntech said a weak Euro contributed to a 14 percent fall in average product prices in its first quarter. The prospect of continued weakness led its shares down 3 percent.

Suntech does 68 percent of its business in Europe.


Solar In For Turbulent Times

May 26, 2010

The solar market is in for turbulent times.

Sales this year should grow a robust 58 percent to 11.2 GW, recovering from a difficult 2009. And while they should rise modestly again next year, over capacity will push prices sharply lower

This difficult combination will cause sales dollars – and profit margins – to fall.

Weathering this market will be difficult for all but the lowest cost manufacturers, warns an annual market forecast from Greentech Media Research.

Solar market revenue from 2003 to 2013. Source: Greentech Media Research

Here are some observations from the study:

*High electricity prices will make Japan and Italy the first markets to see solar reach cost parity with fossil fuels. Select projects will begin to reach parity in the next three years with widespread cost parity after that.

*German demand for solar energy will peak in 2010 following cuts in the country’s feed-in tariff beginning in July. In 2011, demand will decline to 4 GW from 5.5 GW this year and remain steady through 2013.

*Italy will become the world’s second largest solar market (after Germany) in 2010. Demand of 1.4 GW will be spurred by feed-in tariff cuts planned for 2011.

*Excess manufacturing capacity for solar modules will increase each year through 2013. Excess capacity of more than 6 GW this year will increase to more than 13 GW by then.

*Module pricing will once again come under pressure. After a slight uptick in the first half of 2010, prices will fall in the second half of the year and tumble another 19 percent in 2011. Margins at manufacturers will shrink.

*Thin-film solar cells will make up about a third of the market by 2013 as new technologies – as well as First Solar’s cadmium telluride cells – see expanding demand. Only a few companies will achieve high margin, thin-film production.


Three Top Green Technologies From MIT

April 20, 2010

Every year MIT compiles a list of the top 10 technologies it believes will change the world. This year, three are green.

Biofuel, solar innovation and cement make MIT's top 2010 technologies list

At the top of the list is Noubar Afeyan’s Joule Biotechnologies, a company using genetically engineered organisms to convert sunlight directly into biofuels. The new process should enable biofuels to compete with fossil fuels on price and scale – both of which are necessary if the world is to wean itself from gasoline and oil.

Joule says its goal is to conduct a pilot project this year and enter commercial production by 2012. It hopes to generate 25,000 gallons of ethanol and 15,000 gallons of biodiesel an acre, making the fuels cost competitive with oil.

The company calls its process Helioculture. Using genome engineering and synthetic biology, it creates an organism that converts waste CO2 directly to fuel. The process doesn’t require feedstocks, such as corn, or wood chips, fresh water and agricultural land. The company is based in Cambridge.

Also on the MIT list is Australian National University researcher Kylie Catchpole, who found a way to boost the efficiency of solar cells by depositing nanoparticles of silver on thin film solar cells. The innovation could lead solar to be more competitive with coal- and gas-fired power plants

Catchpole has long been working in the field. One published scientific paper of hers dating to 2007 claims 30 percent efficiency improvements are possible. The silver particles trap light that is otherwise scattered across the cell and reflected. They also should enable manufacturers to cut costs by relying on less pure silicon.

Other researcher in California and the Netherlands are working on similar technology.

Green cement is a third focus of the MIT report. Cement creates 5 percent of global carbon emissions and Novacem has created cement that incorporates carbon rather than releases it.

The advance could revolutionize construction.


JA Solar Sees A Shortage Of Solar Cell Production Capacity

November 10, 2009

With a rebound in demand, solar cell makers are once again facing a shortage of production capacity, one of China’s largest solar manufacturers said Tuesday.

JA Solar Holdings said lower prices for solar cells drove customers to showrooms and into purchase arrangements with installers.

Third quarter orders were two to three times the company's production capacity

Orders in the quarter were two to three times in excess of the company’s production capacity, CEO Baofang Jin said on a conference call. Demand continues to outpace capacity, he added.

JS Solar did not specify whether the manufacturing shortfall was strictly limited to the Chinese market, where JA Solar does 77 percent of its business, or broader. But the CEO said, “We saw a significant pick up in demand. There is a shortage of solar cell capacity today.”

JA Solar trails Suntech as China’s largest producer of solar cells. But with $193 million in third quarter revenue, it serves as a useful proxy on the Chinese market.

After months of falling prices,  get ready for today’s more stable pricing to last (JA Solar’s prices fell 7 percent in the third quarterr) – at least until the next factory can be built.


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