Is The Daqo IPO Back? Chinese Polysilicon Maker Files New Business Plan With SEC

August 20, 2010

Daqo New Energy Corp. postponed an initial public offer in January. Two days ago, it filed new documents with the Securities & Exchange Commission suggesting a $100 million IPO may be back on the table.

The new filing lays out a business plan that is scaled back in one measure and more aggressive in another. It also points out that sales have doubled so far this year – growth that could interest investors.

Daqo is a Chinese manufacturer of polysilicon used by solar companies Yingli Green Energy, Solarfun, Solargiga, China Sunergy and Tianwei New Energy to produce photovoltaic products. It boasts it is one of largest polysilicon companies in China.

Taqo has nonetheless scaled back its expansion plans. In its January filing with the SEC, it projected production capacity of 3.300 metric tones by September 2009.

Its updated filing on Aug. 18 says this same level of production capacity (3,300 metric tones) was in place as of June 2010. Plans now call for an expansion to 7,300 metric tonnes by the end of 2012, instead of the 9.300 metric tonnes projected in January.

At the same time, the company is more aggressively pursuing vertical integration. It plans to begin commercial wafer manufacturing in the first quarter of 2011. Module production already has begun with solar cells it buys from other makers. As of June, module production capacity was 50 megawatts. It will grow to 200 megawatts in the first quarter of 2011.

“We also intend to enter into the cell manufacturing business in the future,” the documents says – a new addition to the business plan.

In its January papers, the company’s goal was to expand into module manufacturing and solar power system integration and installation. It offered few details.

Business so far this year appears solid. The company’s revenue for the first six months of the year doubled to $98 million from $49 million for the same period in 2009. Profits rose more slowly, to $18 million from $14 million. For all of 2009, sales were $111 million and net income was $30 million.

Daqo said it would use the money from an IPO to expand its polysilicon and module businesses and to enter wafer manufacturing. It is not the only Chinese solar company to balk on an IPO this year. Both Trony Solar Holdings and JinkoSolar Holding have back away from selling shares to the public.


DOE Home Weatherization Looks More Like PACE – $120 Million To Speed Up Efforts

August 19, 2010

PACE is dead. But the Department of Energy is turning up the heat under its home weatherization – or more accurately retrofit – efforts.

The department said Thursday that 31,600 homes across the country were weatherized in June, a record. The target for the summer: 80,000. It also said that for the first time, weatherization will include renewable energy – such as solar – along with energy-efficient appliances, cool roofs and tankless water heaters.

To fuel the effort, Energy Secretary Steven Chu on Thursday awarded $120 million of Recovery Act funds to more than 100 organizations to expand programs and undertake pilot projects.

With PACE, or Property Assessed Clean Energy, on the sidelines, alternate efforts to improve the energy efficiency of homes and buildings have been necessary. PACE came to a near halt this spring and summer when Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Fannie regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, barred lenders from writing mortgages for PACE homes. (PACE programs, which were taking root in 23 states, typically lend government money to homeowners and place special assessments for repayment on property tax bills.) Fannie and company worried PACE liens would receive priority over mortgage leans in the even of defaults.

To mimic the work of many PACE programs, Chu said the government would now permit weatherization programs to install renewable energy – solar panels, solar heating systems and wind turbines – as well as cool roofs, insulation, high-efficiency appliances, tankless water heaters, combination boilers for heat and hot water, in-home energy monitors and ductless heat pumps. In other words, weatherization begins to look more like energy retrofit.

Retrofit projects in 27 states will get $90 million of the money. The work will be performed by 103 local companies. An additional $30 million will support 16 pilot projects targeting low-income households and testing new ways to finance retrofits and new technologies.

For instance, one program in Washington, D.C., received $2.6 million to improve energy efficiency at 2,500 eligible housing units. A $1.25 million loan loss reserve will be set up so nearly $8 million in private loans can be made to homeowners.

Another $850,000 will go to a program in Utah to create a revolving loan program offering low-interest financing to low-income households.

The Energy Department said its weatherization program created 13,000 jobs for carpenters, electricians and other workers during the second quarter.


Huge Expansion Of Solar Production Capacity Continues

August 18, 2010

The manufacturing capacity of crystalline silicon solar panels is set to grow by about 80 percent this year as producers, especially in China, hastily build out factories.

The added capacity should amount to between 11 gigawatts and 13 gigawatts – or roughly the equivalent of this year’s entire market demand, equipment supplier Applied Materials said Wednesday. The company expects sales this year to be above 12 gigawatts.

Crystalline silicon solar cell manufacturing equipment

It’s “a heck of a lot of capacity,” CEO Michael Splinter said on a conference call. “There is a huge expansion in China.”

The onrush of new capacity is likely to lead to further price declines in coming quarters. It also could pressure profit margins at producers.

Applied offered its observation on a third-quarter conference call, where it said it saw solar demand increasing next year in addition to supply. Growth in Germany, the world’s largest market, could moderate from this year. But sales elsewhere in Europe, in China and in parts of the United States should increase.

The company has a particular good vantage point from which to observe production increases since it sells manufacturing equipment to the industry. On the conference call, it said:

*Spending on equipment to make crystalline silicon panels should double in 2010 to $8 billion.

*The utilization of fabs, or factories, has improved.

*The factories of the 10 to 15 largest producers are “fully loaded” and can’t keep up with demand.

*Producers have not yet begun to slow capacity growth. “We haven’t seen signs of a pull back at this point,” says Splinter. “We just see very strong orders.”

Applied said third-quarter sales in its energy and environmental solutions business more than doubled from the second quarter to $387 million, led by its crystalline silicon business. Orders, however, fell to $353 million. In late July, the company killed its SunFab product line for thin-film solar cells manufacturing.

As a result of the SunFab decision, Applied took a quarterly charge of $405 million, which forced the business unit to post an operating loss of $371 million.

Applied said that despite its SunFab decision a Chinese customer is considering a factory and could make a decision whether to go ahead in the fourth quarter.


Nanosys Unveils $30M In Funding, Strikes Solar Deal With Samsung

August 10, 2010

Nanosys strengthened its competitive standing in the clean-tech market by securing as much as $30 million in new funding and striking a deal to have Samsung use its solar technology.

The Palo Alto start-up that became a poster child of the nanotech craze six years ago, has been steadily remaking itself into a supplier of technology to electronics and green-tech companies. The heady days are gone, as are the plans for a 2004 IPO.

But the company has built a respectable portfolio of technologies that boost the capacity of lithium ion batteries and improve the quality and efficiency of LED displays and solid-state lighting.

Now it has received validation of its solar technology in the form of a licensing agreement with Samsung. As part of the deal, Samsung Venture Investment Corp. will take a $15 million equity stake in Nanosys – on top of the millions more the company will pay for the license.

Previous Nanosys investors Arch Venture Partners, El Dorado Ventures, Polaris Venture Capital and Venrock will join the funding round, contributing $10 million. Nanosys expects to add another $5 million to the round by October.

CEO Jason Hartlove says the Samsung money will allow Nanosys to build a Silicon Valley plant and ramp production volumes.

But more importantly, Samsung will license Nanosys’ nano-particle coating technology and nano-inks to improve the efficiency and lower the cost of its thin-film solar cell production.

Samsung, a relatively latecomer to solar, announced earlier this week that it would more than quadruple solar cell production by the first half of next year. The company kicked off a 30 MW solar pilot last September and now has set its sights on 130 MW. It is reportedly working with both crystalline cells and thin film technologies.

Hartlove says his nano-particle coatings shift the infrared and ultraviolet wavelength light that thin film can’t process to colors the cells can absorb. Efficiency goes up. Meanwhile, nano-inks are quicker and cheaper alternatives to the chemical vapor deposition reactors that thin-film producers often use.

Samsung also will work with Nanosys on Nanosys’ quantum dot technology for LED chips.

“This is a very important deal for us,” says Hartlove.


First Solar’s Cautious Sales Outlook, Cost Improvement

July 29, 2010

First Solar offered a cautious outlook on sales this year, but said Thursday it cut manufacturing costs and promised a rapid expansion in utility-scale projects.

The thin-film giant reported second-quarter financial results with a 12 percent increase in sales. However, earnings were down primarily due to lower module selling prices.

The world’s largest solar maker acknowledged replacing some modules made from June 2008 to June 2009 because of declines in power output. It said replacement costs would add up to slightly more than $23 million for an anticipated 30 megawatts of modules.

Perhaps most significantly, the company cut its 2010 sales expectation to $2.5 billion to $2.6 billion from the $2.6 billion to $2.7 billion it forecast in April.

On a conference call, it said:

*Module manufacturing costs fell to 76 cents a watt, down 5 cents from the first quarter. Annual throughput per line was up 6 percent to 59 megawatts and material costs were lower. The company’s target is to reach 52 cents to 63 cents a watt in 2014.

*Utility-scale projects are expected to increase. First Solar said it anticipates building 500 to 700 megawatts of projects in North America during 2011, up from 175 megawatts this year.

*Demand is expected to exceed supply in 2010. First Solar expects production capacity to be 2.2 gigawatts by 2012, up from 1.4 gigawatts this year. Module conversion efficiency was 11.2 percent in the second quarter compared with 11.1 percent in the first quarter.


Survival Path Seen For Amorphous Thin Film

July 23, 2010

Applied Materials pulled the plug this week on its turnkey SunFab line of manufacturing equipment for amorphous thin-film solar cells.

Competitor Oerlikon is making no such concession. The company says it is on target for an aggressive reduction in manufacturing costs – to 70 cents a watt this year – and foresees further reductions next year.

The claims of progress from Oerlikon Head of Market Development Chris O’Brien come as amorphous technology finds itself under assault. With crystalline module prices down 40 percent last year and financing for utility-scale projects under pressure, thin-film is finding the road ahead tough.

Applied’s answer was to pull back from the market and discontinue SunFab sales. The company vows to continue research and development, and to sell production equipment piecemeal.

Oerlikon says its Kai MT production machinery helped improve factory performance - keeping it in front of Applied Materials.

Equipment supplier Oerlikon, on the other hand, is not balking. O’Brien says he expects the global production capacity of amorphous cells to someday rival that of cadmium telluride, presently the most popular thin-film technology. First Solar, the world’s largest solar producer and the only significant maker of cadmium telluride, has about 18 percent of the global solar market.

Amorphous production capacity from manufacturers, such as Sharp and Konica Minolta, will add up, says O’Brien.

Thin-film advocates, such as Oerlikon, argue that a lot of the expected cost reductions have already been wrung from crystalline-cell manufacturing. Price declines will eventually slow.

This will leave an opening for thin film. It is an opening Oerlikon hopes to capitalize on. The company says the cost of thin-film cells made with its equipment will drop to 70 cents a watt by the end of the year, from $1 at the year’s start and a $1.50 in 2008.

This may not enable them to catch those from First Solar, which early this year reached 81 cents. (First Solar is likely to offer a new benchmark when it releases quarterly earnings next week.) But O’Brien sees competition increasing and says more significant cost reductions are expected next year. He declined to offer a target.

He says Oerlikon was able to avoid Applied Materials’ fate by maintaining a technological advantage. First, the company’s micromorph tandem junction technology is generating module efficiencies of 8.5 to 9 percent, up from the 7 to 8 percent of a single junction cell.

Second, the company’s new generation Kai MT production machinery offered a big improvement in factory throughput this year. Added to that, Applied was unable to match the company’s transparent conductive oxide, or TCO, which offered an improvement in efficiency.

O’Brien separately says he sees strong growth in the U.S. market over the next three years. Module sales should almost double this year to 800 megawatts of capacity from 440 megawatts last year. By 2013, analysts project the market should expand to 1,600 megawatts, and that outlook could be too conservative, he says.

How much of that will go to thin film is hard to say.


Applied Kills SunFab But Vows To Stay In Thin Film

July 21, 2010

Applied Materials said Wednesday it stopped selling its troubled SunFab line of manufacturing equipment for thin-film solar cells.

The company said tumbling sales for the product line were the result of falling crystalline silicon panel prices and a weak market for utility-scale solar plants due to the recent recession.

Applied Materials said it expects customers eventually will show renewed interest in thin film manufacturing equipment, like SunFab.

However the Silicon Valley semiconductor equipment maker vowed to stay in the thin-film business, not only selling individual tools to customers but continuing research and development on advanced chemical vapor deposition machinery targeting tandem and triple junction cells.

“We still believe in the technology,” said Mark Pinto, an executive vice president in the company’s energy division. “We are still going to invest in the technology.

As recently as two months ago, Applied Materials held out hope of attracting new SunFab business from large utilities in India and China. At the time, sales in its energy and environmental division were down 54 percent and SunFab orders were about two-thirds of what they were several quarters earlier.

Chief Executive Mike Splinter said Wednesday he could no longer continue down the path of poor performance. “This decision is about the market” and the shortfall in demand for SunFab, he said.

And yet, Applied Materials claimed solar manufacturers were likely to show renewed interest in thin-film cells in the future – amorphous silicon, like SunFab’s, and others.

The decision to exit the SunFab business creates uncertainty for Applied Materials’ more than a dozen customers. The company said it would support its users, but many are early in the technology and producing single junction cells.

Applied’s decision to pull the plug on SunFab will put as many as 500 employees out of work and result in a charge of as much as $425 million.


Can SolarReserve Top BrightSource?

July 21, 2010

SolarReserve is one of the few next-generation solar-thermal vendors with field experience.

The company has the exclusive rights to the molten-salt technology United Technologies’ Pratt &Whitney RocketDyne tested at Solar Two in the California desert during the 1990s.

“We consider that to be a strong competitive advantage,” says Tom Georgis, vice president of development.

It also is a critical reason why the Santa Monica company believes its plants will match or top the efficiency of BrightSource’s Ivanpah. And the experience is at the foundation of SolarReserve’s belief it will find financing, despite the reluctance of private lenders.

SolarReserve is among the most promising of a new wave of solar-thermal developers. Instead of replying on parabolic mirrors, like the SEGS operating in the Southwest desert, these entrepreneurs hope to prove technologies just now moving from the drawing board to large scale deployment: ground-mounted heliostats, heat-concentrating towers, high operating temperatures and storage mechanisms, such as molten salt.

The company’s proposed plants (two in the United States and one in Spain) use as many as 17,000 heliostats to reflect sunlight to receivers atop of 653-foot towers. There the sunlight transfers heat to molten salt, warming the sodium and potassium mixture to 1,050 degrees Fahrenheit, after which it is transferred to a storage tank where it loses no more than 1 degree a day. (BrightSource also anticipates more than 1,000-degree temperatures at Ivanpah.) The superheated liquid is channeled to a heat exchanger where it boils water and powers a turbine.

Solar Reserves claims high efficiencies for much of its operations. The transfer of sunlight to heated salt is 88 percent efficient and the storage tank maintains 98 to 99 percent of the thermal efficient of the molten salt. The weak link is the steam generation system: about 39 to 42 percent efficient. Improvements in turbine technology should raise this.

Altogether, a SolarReserve plant will have an efficiency of 18 to 19 percent, says Georgis. This compares favorably to the 18 percent efficiency BrightSource expects at Ivanpah. (The new generation of solar-thermal plant with concentrating towers and heliostats in general should achieve efficiencies of 17 percent to 20 percent, says Electric Power Research Institute Project Manager Cara Libby – well above the 13 to 15 percent of the older trough plants in the Southwest and Spain.)

SolarReserve also expects to rival BrightSource with its capacity factor, a measure of the amount of time a plant can achieve full output.

The California plant, outfitted with a 150-megawatt turbine, is designed to generate peak-period power for PG&E. Running an average of 8.5 hours a day, it should achieve a capacity factor of 34 percent by heating and storing salt in the mornings and using it to deliver power well into the evening.

BrightSource’s 392 megawatt Ivanpah is to have a capacity factor of 30 percent.

SolarReserve’s Nevada plant should do better. It will have a smaller 100-megawatt turbine and operate longer hours, earning a capacity factor of 53 percent. (The longer the operating hours and the smaller the turbine, the higher the capacity factor is likely to go.)

Despite the ability of the SolarReserve facilities to storage energy, the challenge will be finding financing. Without federal loan guarantees, most plants won’t stand a chance. But the company doesn’t appear ready to buy into the theory.

“It is certainly a challenging environment,” agrees Georgis. “But we are confident we will secure financing for our projects.”

SolarReserve has applied for Department of Energy loan guarantees and is quick to defend their role. “Having the DOE loan guarantees makes it easier to finance,” he says. The extensive government due diligence makes private lenders more comfortable and debt cheaper.

That’s why the industry let out a sigh of relief when Abengoa’s Solana plant near Phoenix won $1.45 billion of Energy Department loan guarantees in July – the first granted since BrightSource’s $1.37 billion package in February.

But SolarReserve appears willing to push ahead even without a government award. It hopes to break ground in both California and Nevada by the end of the year.

The company argues that utilities wouldn’t sign power purchase agreements if they didn’t value the power – a key proof-point with banks. It also largely dismisses increasing competition from solar panels.

Panels are easier to finance, quicker to permit and simpler to deploy. They also are less expensive. With the collapse of module pricing last year, panel costs fell to between $3.50 and $5.50 a watt from $6 or more, says Ted Sullivan, senior analyst at Lux Research. Costs of solar thermal remain largely unchanged at $7 to $8 a watt.

Still SolarReserve isn’t deterred. “It’s more competitive now, no question,” concedes Georgis. But “our power plants are not intermittent resources (and) we’re offering competitive pricing.”

So will the new generation of plants be successful? “It’s too early to say,” says Sullivan. “There have been a lot of plans out there, but nothing has been built on that scale.”

With many technologies showing promise, it will be interesting to see who goes first.


The Solar Module Market: Concerns Ahead

July 19, 2010

The solar module market has had a solid 2010, and expectations are the second half of the year will be good, too, despite the feed-in tariff cuts in Germany.

However, questions are arising for 2011.

Pricing and product demand remains favorable as the back half of 2010 begins. That was the word from Intersolar last week. Demand in Germany, the world’s largest market, should pick up later this quarter, after a modest start.

Analysts say they have seen solar cell prices rise a bit this year.

Sales in other European countries, Italy, Spain and the Czech Republic, are moving ahead in advance of tariff cuts of their own. This is leading prices to be stable and wafer prices to even climb a bit. According to Y. Edwin Mok, an analyst at Needham & Co., crystalline cell pricing has risen to $1.35 a watt, compared with $1.25 a watt or so in the first quarter.

This could help vendors such as SunPower, JA Solar and Suntech Power Holdings.

The danger is that this year’s strength will turn into next year’s softness. The fear is especially high in Italy and Spain, which are facing large tariff cuts, says Mok. German installations could decline as well, he adds.

Mok is not alone in his assessment. John Hardy at Gleacher & Company said he expects the world’s largest module maker, First Solar, to post better-than-expected second-quarter sales later this month and speak favorably about the rest of the year.

“The big industry test is coming” in the first quarter of 2011, he says. That’s when sales could slump and another rapid decline in prices could spark worries of another 2009.


The Case For Thin Film Solar

July 15, 2010

Thin-film cells are sometimes viewed as the unloved stepchildren of the solar industry.

Low efficiencies, unattractive yields and technical manufacturing hurdles slowed the industry’s expansion. Plunging crystalline silicon prices last year made competing even tougher.

Vendors and suppliers see module costs falling to 75 cents a watt and below.

Still companies hold out ambitious hopes for the future – and for costs to reach to 75 cents a watt and below in the next couple years. Prices this low should improve thin film’s market position versus crystalline module makers, such as Suntech Power Holdings and SunPower, especially for large-scale utility deployments.

Thin-film leader First Solar sets the benchmark. The company’s cadmium-telluride modules achieved 11.1 percent efficiency in the first quarter of this year and at a cost of 81 cents a watt. The company holds a market leading 18 percent share of the solar module market.

But competitors and suppliers say they see a path beyond this leader and expect to arrive there in the not too distant future. According to John Patrin, director of business development and product marketing at equipment supplier Veeco, a module with 12.5 percent efficiency and a cost of 75 cents a watt is possible.

The biggest way to improve cost per watt is to drive up efficiency, he says.

Liyou Yang, the former head of thin-film research at BP Solar and now the chief executive of Astronergy in China, hopes to outdo this. He sees an opportunity to reduce costs to 71 cents a watt as soon as this year, aided by a jump in production volumes. Yang said at the Intersolar conference that his goal is to expand thin-film manufacturing to 75 megawatts by December, more than double last year.

Breaking the 70-cent level is “what we are driving to achieve,” he says. To accomplish that, Astronergy expects 9.7 percent efficiency by the end of the year and says 12 percent in commercial volumes is possible in 2 to 3 years. If this is becomes a reality, “we will at least put thin film on a viable path,” he says.

Such a path means enhanced competition with crystalline cells. There is a growing conviction that crystalline silicon modules will fall to $1.05 or $1.06 a watt, but no further. Modules need to fall to $1 a watt to compete head-to-head with electricity from coal without government subsidies.

Clearly, though, the industry has a lot of convincing to do. Venture investing in thin-film start-ups dropped sharply in 2009 and 2010, and decision makers appear hesitant to reverse the trend.

In a Perspectives piece published just last month on Greentech Media, clean-tech investor Vinod Khosla offered a downbeat opinion of the industry. “Most current thin-film start-up efforts do not appear differentiated enough to justify the hundreds of millions invested in them,” he said.

The challenge for entrepreneurs will be to prove him wrong.


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