Suntech Boasts It Is The Largest Solar Company, Warns Of Higher Wafer Costs

August 18, 2010

Suntech Power Holdings said a surge in second-quarter sales made it the world’s largest solar module producer by revenue.

But it warned of higher silicon wafer costs and said its next generation high-efficiency Pluto cells still struggle with manufacturing difficulties.

The Chinese producer reported quarterly sales Wednesday that rose 95 percent from last year to $625 million. Rival First Solar’s sales for its recent second-quarter were $588 million.

However, the company said silicon wafer prices were largely unchanged in the second quarter, but are showing signs of rising. Suntech could find itself exposed to short-term increases, said CEO Zhengrong Shi. The company indicated it would expand its wafer production capacity. (Suntech has a minority stake in wafer maker Shunda Holdings. Shunda is going through reorganization.)

The news led to warning flags from some analysts. “We believe (Suntech’s) costs will remain above its competitors due to near-term tightness in wafer supply,” cautioned Needham’s Y. Edwin Mok.

Suntech also acknowledged that Pluto production still faces hurdles. The company made progress eliminating some production bottlenecks, Shi said on a conference call. He noted that production increase to 6 megawatts during the quarter from 4 megawatts, and that more manufacturing capacity would shift to Pluto in coming months.

The cells are achieving 19 percent efficient on mono-crystalline wafers and are key to Suntech ability to compete with efficiency leader SunPower.

On the conference all, Suntech also said:

*Its decision earlier this month to kill trial production of amorphous thin-film solar cells was tied to the decline in crystalline silicon module prices over the past couple years and delays in final acceptance testing of the line. The company took a $54.6 million impairment charge for its thin-film production equipment.

*It would accelerate plans to add crystalline silicon module production capacity. The new target is 1.8 gigawatts by the end of the year, up from 1.4 gigawatts at the end of the second quarter. The company also increased its shipment target for 2010, to 1.5 gigawatts from 1.3 gigawatts.

*Non-silicon production costs fell to 52 cents a watt from 56 cents. The company said it is on target to reach 50 cents.

*Average module sales prices were down 4 percent in the second quarter, mostly due to the decline in the value of the Euro. Prices could decline slightly in the third quarter, but should be relatively stable in the second half of the year, the company said.

*The solar market remains solid. German business was strong in the second quarter and should remain so during the second half of the year, despite the July cuts in the nation’s feed-in tariff. Sales in France, Italy and the Benelux countries also should grow in the second half of the year.

*Meanwhile, North American demand showed signs of improvement. Sales in the United States grew 35 percent sequentially in the quarter. Suntech also said it sees potential in Asia, particularly in India. The sun’s intensity is good there and the nation’s power grid is unreliable, says Shi. “The Indian market is a sleeping giant in terms of the potential for long-term solar demand.”


The Case For Thin Film Solar

July 15, 2010

Thin-film cells are sometimes viewed as the unloved stepchildren of the solar industry.

Low efficiencies, unattractive yields and technical manufacturing hurdles slowed the industry’s expansion. Plunging crystalline silicon prices last year made competing even tougher.

Vendors and suppliers see module costs falling to 75 cents a watt and below.

Still companies hold out ambitious hopes for the future – and for costs to reach to 75 cents a watt and below in the next couple years. Prices this low should improve thin film’s market position versus crystalline module makers, such as Suntech Power Holdings and SunPower, especially for large-scale utility deployments.

Thin-film leader First Solar sets the benchmark. The company’s cadmium-telluride modules achieved 11.1 percent efficiency in the first quarter of this year and at a cost of 81 cents a watt. The company holds a market leading 18 percent share of the solar module market.

But competitors and suppliers say they see a path beyond this leader and expect to arrive there in the not too distant future. According to John Patrin, director of business development and product marketing at equipment supplier Veeco, a module with 12.5 percent efficiency and a cost of 75 cents a watt is possible.

The biggest way to improve cost per watt is to drive up efficiency, he says.

Liyou Yang, the former head of thin-film research at BP Solar and now the chief executive of Astronergy in China, hopes to outdo this. He sees an opportunity to reduce costs to 71 cents a watt as soon as this year, aided by a jump in production volumes. Yang said at the Intersolar conference that his goal is to expand thin-film manufacturing to 75 megawatts by December, more than double last year.

Breaking the 70-cent level is “what we are driving to achieve,” he says. To accomplish that, Astronergy expects 9.7 percent efficiency by the end of the year and says 12 percent in commercial volumes is possible in 2 to 3 years. If this is becomes a reality, “we will at least put thin film on a viable path,” he says.

Such a path means enhanced competition with crystalline cells. There is a growing conviction that crystalline silicon modules will fall to $1.05 or $1.06 a watt, but no further. Modules need to fall to $1 a watt to compete head-to-head with electricity from coal without government subsidies.

Clearly, though, the industry has a lot of convincing to do. Venture investing in thin-film start-ups dropped sharply in 2009 and 2010, and decision makers appear hesitant to reverse the trend.

In a Perspectives piece published just last month on Greentech Media, clean-tech investor Vinod Khosla offered a downbeat opinion of the industry. “Most current thin-film start-up efforts do not appear differentiated enough to justify the hundreds of millions invested in them,” he said.

The challenge for entrepreneurs will be to prove him wrong.


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